Brazil · Serie A

Atletico-MG vs Vitoria

Kick-off 22:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

95% confidence

Atletico-MG 94.5% Draw 4.8% Vitoria 0.7%

Over 2.5 - 77% BTTS - 26%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

95%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

95%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 15.2%, based on the goal model.

Strongest 1X2 probability

Recent form leans to Atletico-MG: 11 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.2%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico-MG

W D W D L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Vitoria

L W L L L D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 1:10 Scored/game 0.17 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico-MG win94.5%

Draw4.8%

Vitoria win0.7%

Over 1.5 goals91.5%

Over 2.5 goals77.0%

Over 3.5 goals57.5%

Both teams to score25.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.9%

Home Over 1.5

87.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

84.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home99.0%

Home or Draw (1X)97.5%

Home or Away (12)94.2%

Home Win93.2%

Both Halves Over 0.575.1%

Goal in Both Halves75.1%

Exactly 1 Goal6.9%

Draw or Away (X2)5.2%

Draw4.2%

Away Win1.0%

Draw No Bet - Away1.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Over 1.5 Goals89.9%

Under 5.5 Goals78.8%

Over 2.5 Goals75.8%

Under 4.5 Goals62.9%

Over 3.5 Goals56.6%

4+ Goals56.6%

2-4 Goals52.8%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

Under 3.5 Goals43.4%

1-3 Goals40.1%

3-4 Goals38.7%

Over 4.5 Goals37.1%

2-3 Goals33.2%

Under 2.5 Goals24.2%

Over 5.5 Goals21.2%

1-2 Goals21.0%

Exactly 3 Goals19.1%

Exactly 2 Goals14.1%

Under 1.5 Goals10.1%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)75.1%

Home Clean Sheet72.9%

Home Win to Nil71.2%

Away Team to Score25.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)24.9%

Away Clean Sheet2.3%

Away Win to Nil0.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.5%

Away Exactly 072.9%

Home Over 2.571.2%

Home 3+ Goals71.2%

Away Over 0.525.5%

Away Exactly 121.9%

Home Exactly 216.3%

Home Exactly 18.6%

Away Over 1.53.6%

Away Exactly 23.3%

Home Exactly 02.3%

Away Over 2.50.4%

Away 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home97.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)93.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)84.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home82.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)71.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away71.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home65.1%

Home to win by 3+65.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)53.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away53.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)45.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home45.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)33.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away33.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)27.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home27.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw20.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw18.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)16.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away16.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home14.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw13.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.8%

Home to win by 110.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away5.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw0.9%

Away to win by 10.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 20.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Away to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.574.8%

Home & No BTTS71.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.552.8%

BTTS & Over 2.523.0%

Home & BTTS22.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.8%

Home & Under 2.518.5%

Draw & Under 2.53.6%

Draw & BTTS2.5%

BTTS & Under 2.51.9%

Draw & Over 2.50.6%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Away & No BTTS0.6%

Away & Over 2.50.4%

Away & BTTS0.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.0%

HT Home Win77.6%

HT/FT Home/Home76.8%

HT Over 1.554.7%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Under 1.545.3%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT Draw19.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.5%

HT Under 0.516.0%

HT Both Teams Score10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.9%

HT Away Win2.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw0.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw0.7%

HT/FT Away/Away0.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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