Brazil · Serie A

Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia

Kick-off 23:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Atletico Paranaense 42.6% Draw 19.7% Bahia 37.7%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bahia: 9 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.7%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Paranaense

D L D W D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 13:12 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 2

Bahia

W W W W D D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Paranaense win42.6%

Draw19.7%

Bahia win37.7%

Over 1.5 goals96.3%

Over 2.5 goals86.8%

Over 3.5 goals72.3%

Both teams to score84.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.8%

Home Over 0.5

91.8%

Away Team to Score

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.1%

Goal in Both Halves83.1%

Home or Away (12)81.3%

Home or Draw (1X)61.5%

Draw or Away (X2)56.7%

Draw No Bet - Home52.9%

Draw No Bet - Away47.1%

Home Win43.1%

Away Win38.3%

Draw18.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals95.5%

Over 2.5 Goals86.7%

Over 3.5 Goals72.2%

4+ Goals72.2%

Under 5.5 Goals63.2%

Over 4.5 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals45.6%

2-4 Goals41.1%

Over 5.5 Goals36.8%

3-4 Goals32.3%

Under 3.5 Goals27.8%

1-3 Goals26.9%

2-3 Goals23.3%

Exactly 3 Goals14.5%

Under 2.5 Goals13.3%

1-2 Goals12.4%

Exactly 2 Goals8.8%

Under 1.5 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.8%

Away Team to Score90.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.6%

Home Clean Sheet9.1%

Home Win to Nil8.4%

Away Clean Sheet8.0%

Away Win to Nil7.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.8%

Away Over 0.590.7%

Home Over 1.571.7%

Away Over 1.568.8%

Home Over 2.546.2%

Home 3+ Goals46.2%

Away Over 2.542.7%

Away 3+ Goals42.7%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 225.5%

Away Exactly 121.8%

Home Exactly 120.1%

Away Exactly 09.1%

Home Exactly 08.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)61.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home61.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)38.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)22.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away22.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 116.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 116.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.7%

Home to win by 3+13.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.5%

Home to win by 212.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.1%

Away to win by 211.1%

Away to win by 3+11.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.0%

Home & Over 2.538.9%

Home & BTTS34.6%

Away & Over 2.534.4%

Away & BTTS31.0%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Draw & Over 2.513.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.7%

Home & No BTTS8.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.6%

Away & No BTTS7.2%

Draw & Under 2.55.1%

BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Home & Under 2.54.2%

Away & Under 2.53.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.1%

HT Over 1.564.9%

2nd Half More Goals49.5%

HT Both Teams Score44.8%

HT Home Win37.1%

HT Under 1.535.1%

HT Away Win33.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw29.0%

HT/FT Home/Home27.5%

HT/FT Away/Away24.0%

Equal Goals Each Half18.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.3%

HT Under 0.510.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away4.1%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners72.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners68.7%

Away Most Corners66.5%

Over 8.5 Corners64.0%

Under 10.5 Corners61.2%

Over 9.5 Corners51.3%

Under 9.5 Corners48.7%

Over 10.5 Corners38.8%

Home Over 4.5 Corners36.5%

Under 8.5 Corners36.0%

Over 11.5 Corners27.7%

Home Most Corners22.6%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards80.1%

Over 2.5 Cards74.7%

Under 4.5 Cards64.8%

Over 3.5 Cards54.7%

Under 3.5 Cards45.3%

Over 4.5 Cards35.2%

Under 2.5 Cards25.3%

Over 5.5 Cards19.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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