Brazil · Serie A

Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Atletico Paranaense 53.9% Draw 31.3% Fluminense 14.8%

Over 2.5 - 31% BTTS - 34%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 19.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atletico Paranaense: 14 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

19.4%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Paranaense

W D W D W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 10:4 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.67

Fluminense

W W D D D D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Paranaense win53.9%

Draw31.3%

Fluminense win14.8%

Over 1.5 goals59.2%

Over 2.5 goals30.6%

Over 3.5 goals13.2%

Both teams to score34.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.8%

Under 5.5 Cards

88.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)83.7%

Draw No Bet - Home77.3%

Home or Away (12)71.7%

Home Win55.4%

Draw or Away (X2)44.6%

Both Halves Over 0.538.1%

Goal in Both Halves38.1%

Draw28.3%

Exactly 1 Goal27.9%

Draw No Bet - Away22.7%

Away Win16.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.6%

Under 4.5 Goals95.3%

Under 3.5 Goals86.8%

Over 0.5 Goals85.6%

1-3 Goals72.4%

Under 2.5 Goals69.4%

Over 1.5 Goals57.7%

1-2 Goals55.0%

2-4 Goals53.0%

Total Goals Even51.0%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

2-3 Goals44.5%

Under 1.5 Goals42.3%

Over 2.5 Goals30.6%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

3-4 Goals25.9%

Exactly 3 Goals17.5%

Under 0.5 Goals14.4%

Exactly 0 Goals14.4%

Over 3.5 Goals13.2%

4+ Goals13.2%

Over 4.5 Goals4.7%

Over 5.5 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score74.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)67.1%

Home Clean Sheet55.5%

Away Team to Score44.5%

Home Win to Nil41.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)32.9%

Away Clean Sheet26.0%

Away Win to Nil11.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.574.0%

Away Exactly 055.5%

Away Over 0.544.5%

Home Over 1.539.0%

Home Exactly 135.0%

Away Exactly 132.7%

Home Exactly 026.0%

Home Exactly 223.6%

Home Over 2.515.4%

Home 3+ Goals15.4%

Away Over 1.511.8%

Away Exactly 29.6%

Away Over 2.52.2%

Away 3+ Goals2.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)55.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)44.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away44.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw28.2%

Home to win by 128.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.3%

Away to win by 112.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.2%

Home to win by 3+10.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.2%

Away to win by 23.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.557.9%

Home & No BTTS41.1%

Home & Under 2.532.5%

Draw & Under 2.525.9%

Home & Over 2.522.9%

BTTS & Over 2.521.5%

Home & BTTS14.3%

Draw & BTTS13.9%

Away & No BTTS11.6%

BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

Away & Under 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

Away & Over 2.55.3%

Away & BTTS4.7%

Draw & Over 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.578.3%

HT Over 0.558.2%

HT Draw48.8%

HT Under 0.541.8%

2nd Half More Goals39.5%

HT Home Win37.5%

HT/FT Home/Home33.2%

Equal Goals Each Half31.2%

1st Half More Goals29.2%

HT Over 1.521.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw21.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.5%

HT Away Win13.7%

HT Both Teams Score10.6%

HT/FT Away/Away8.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

Corners (12)

Away Most Corners84.0%

Under 11.5 Corners77.0%

Away Over 4.5 Corners76.7%

Under 10.5 Corners66.6%

Over 8.5 Corners58.7%

Under 9.5 Corners54.4%

Over 9.5 Corners45.6%

Under 8.5 Corners41.3%

Over 10.5 Corners33.4%

Over 11.5 Corners23.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners17.1%

Home Most Corners9.0%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards88.9%

Under 4.5 Cards77.2%

Over 2.5 Cards63.0%

Under 3.5 Cards59.1%

Over 3.5 Cards40.9%

Under 2.5 Cards37.0%

Over 4.5 Cards22.8%

Over 0.5 Red Cards13.0%

Over 5.5 Cards11.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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