Brazil · Serie A

Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras

Kick-off 23:30 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Atletico Paranaense 30.4% Draw 23.3% Palmeiras 46.3%

Over 2.5 - 72% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Palmeiras: 11 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Paranaense

W W D L D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 15:13 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 2.17

Palmeiras

W W D W D D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 8:2 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Paranaense win30.4%

Draw23.3%

Palmeiras win46.3%

Over 1.5 goals89.6%

Over 2.5 goals71.7%

Over 3.5 goals50.9%

Both teams to score71.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.5%

Away Team to Score

87.2%

Away Over 0.5

87.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.8%

Both Halves Over 0.570.7%

Goal in Both Halves70.7%

Draw or Away (X2)68.5%

Draw No Bet - Away60.1%

Home or Draw (1X)52.6%

Away Win47.4%

Draw No Bet - Home39.9%

Home Win31.4%

Draw21.2%

Exactly 1 Goal9.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals88.5%

Under 5.5 Goals82.8%

Over 2.5 Goals71.7%

Under 4.5 Goals68.5%

2-4 Goals57.0%

Over 3.5 Goals50.8%

4+ Goals50.8%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals49.2%

1-3 Goals46.7%

3-4 Goals40.1%

2-3 Goals37.6%

Over 4.5 Goals31.5%

Under 2.5 Goals28.3%

1-2 Goals25.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.8%

Over 5.5 Goals17.2%

Exactly 2 Goals16.8%

Under 1.5 Goals11.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score87.2%

Home Team to Score80.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.5%

Away Clean Sheet19.1%

Away Win to Nil16.6%

Home Clean Sheet12.8%

Home Win to Nil10.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.587.2%

Home Over 0.580.9%

Away Over 1.560.9%

Home Over 1.549.3%

Away Over 2.533.9%

Away 3+ Goals33.9%

Home Exactly 131.6%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 126.3%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Home Over 2.523.1%

Home 3+ Goals23.1%

Home Exactly 019.1%

Away Exactly 012.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)86.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home86.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)72.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home72.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)68.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away68.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)52.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home52.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)31.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.1%

Away to win by 120.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.1%

Home to win by 116.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.2%

Away to win by 214.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away13.1%

Away to win by 3+13.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.2%

Home to win by 29.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.1%

Home to win by 3+6.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.2%

Away & Over 2.537.2%

Away & BTTS30.7%

Home & Over 2.524.1%

Home & BTTS21.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.0%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

Away & No BTTS16.6%

Draw & Under 2.510.7%

Draw & Over 2.510.4%

Home & No BTTS10.3%

Away & Under 2.510.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

BTTS & Under 2.58.3%

Home & Under 2.57.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.2%

HT Under 1.550.2%

HT Over 1.549.8%

2nd Half More Goals46.8%

HT Away Win38.0%

HT Draw34.2%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score31.7%

HT/FT Away/Away29.8%

HT Home Win27.8%

Equal Goals Each Half21.2%

HT Under 0.518.8%

HT/FT Home/Home18.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

Corners (12)

Away Over 4.5 Corners75.3%

Away Most Corners72.1%

Over 8.5 Corners69.2%

Under 11.5 Corners67.1%

Over 9.5 Corners57.0%

Under 10.5 Corners55.5%

Over 10.5 Corners44.5%

Under 9.5 Corners43.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners35.7%

Over 11.5 Corners32.9%

Under 8.5 Corners30.8%

Home Most Corners18.2%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards78.3%

Under 5.5 Cards76.1%

Under 4.5 Cards60.0%

Over 3.5 Cards59.5%

Under 3.5 Cards40.5%

Over 4.5 Cards40.0%

Over 5.5 Cards23.9%

Under 2.5 Cards21.7%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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