Brazil · Serie A

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama

Kick-off 23:30 · Wed, Nov 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Atletico Paranaense 53.8% Draw 17.6% Vasco DA Gama 28.6%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 87%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

87%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

Atletico Paranaense

L D L W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Vasco DA Gama

L W L D D W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 11:9 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 1

Atletico Paranaense 0wins ·0 draws ·Vasco DA Gama 1wins

Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Vasco DA GamaMay 11, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Atletico Paranaense win53.8%

Draw17.6%

Vasco DA Gama win28.6%

Over 1.5 goals97.6%

Over 2.5 goals90.8%

Over 3.5 goals79.2%

Both teams to score86.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.9%

Away Most Corners

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.9%

Goal in Both Halves86.9%

Home or Away (12)82.8%

Home or Draw (1X)70.5%

Draw No Bet - Home65.1%

Home Win53.9%

Draw or Away (X2)45.6%

Draw No Bet - Away34.9%

Away Win28.9%

Draw16.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals96.7%

Over 2.5 Goals90.3%

Over 3.5 Goals78.8%

4+ Goals78.8%

Over 4.5 Goals63.0%

Under 5.5 Goals54.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 5.5 Goals45.8%

Under 4.5 Goals37.0%

2-4 Goals33.7%

3-4 Goals27.3%

Under 3.5 Goals21.2%

1-3 Goals20.2%

2-3 Goals17.9%

Exactly 3 Goals11.6%

Under 2.5 Goals9.7%

1-2 Goals8.7%

Exactly 2 Goals6.4%

Under 1.5 Goals3.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score89.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.1%

Home Clean Sheet9.6%

Home Win to Nil9.1%

Away Clean Sheet4.4%

Away Win to Nil4.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Away Over 0.589.9%

Home Over 1.581.2%

Away Over 1.567.5%

Home Over 2.559.7%

Home 3+ Goals59.7%

Away Over 2.541.2%

Away 3+ Goals41.2%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Away Exactly 122.4%

Home Exactly 221.5%

Home Exactly 113.8%

Away Exactly 09.6%

Home Exactly 04.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home36.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.8%

Home to win by 3+21.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 117.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 214.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.0%

Away to win by 113.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.4%

Away to win by 28.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.5%

Away to win by 3+7.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.8%

Home & Over 2.550.5%

Home & BTTS44.7%

Away & Over 2.526.7%

Away & BTTS24.9%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Draw & Over 2.513.1%

Home & No BTTS9.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Away & No BTTS4.0%

Draw & Under 2.53.5%

Home & Under 2.53.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.1%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.4%

HT Over 1.570.3%

2nd Half More Goals50.5%

HT Both Teams Score49.1%

HT Home Win44.9%

HT/FT Home/Home36.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.7%

HT Away Win28.3%

HT Draw26.8%

HT/FT Away/Away17.8%

Equal Goals Each Half17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.7%

HT Under 0.58.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Away/Home5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

Corners (12)

Away Most Corners91.5%

Away Over 4.5 Corners90.8%

Over 8.5 Corners79.1%

Over 9.5 Corners68.8%

Over 10.5 Corners57.2%

Under 11.5 Corners54.7%

Over 11.5 Corners45.3%

Under 10.5 Corners42.8%

Under 9.5 Corners31.2%

Under 8.5 Corners20.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners20.8%

Home Most Corners4.6%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards89.1%

Under 4.5 Cards77.5%

Over 2.5 Cards62.7%

Under 3.5 Cards59.5%

Over 3.5 Cards40.5%

Under 2.5 Cards37.3%

Over 4.5 Cards22.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards12.9%

Over 5.5 Cards10.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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