USA · Major League Soccer

Austin vs Philadelphia Union

Full time · 1:1

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Austin 39.2% Draw 17.8% Philadelphia Union 43.0%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 89%

✓ Pick was correct (1:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

89%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 5.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Philadelphia Union: 6 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.4%

Exact-score model probability

Austin

W L L L W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 6:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.83

Philadelphia Union

D W W W W L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 16:13 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Austin win39.2%

Draw17.8%

Philadelphia Union win43.0%

Over 1.5 goals98.2%

Over 2.5 goals92.6%

Over 3.5 goals82.5%

Both teams to score89.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

92.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

92.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.6%

Goal in Both Halves88.6%

Home or Away (12)82.4%

Draw or Away (X2)60.1%

Home or Draw (1X)56.3%

Draw No Bet - Away52.3%

Draw No Bet - Home47.7%

Away Win43.1%

Home Win39.3%

Draw17.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals97.3%

Over 2.5 Goals92.0%

Over 3.5 Goals82.0%

4+ Goals82.0%

Over 4.5 Goals67.6%

Over 5.5 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 5.5 Goals49.1%

Under 4.5 Goals32.4%

2-4 Goals29.7%

3-4 Goals24.5%

Under 3.5 Goals18.0%

1-3 Goals17.1%

2-3 Goals15.3%

Exactly 3 Goals10.0%

Under 2.5 Goals8.0%

1-2 Goals7.0%

Exactly 2 Goals5.2%

Under 1.5 Goals2.7%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.1%

Home Team to Score93.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)88.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)11.5%

Away Clean Sheet5.9%

Away Win to Nil5.6%

Home Clean Sheet5.3%

Home Win to Nil5.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.1%

Home Over 0.593.5%

Away Over 1.578.6%

Home Over 1.576.7%

Away Over 2.555.8%

Away 3+ Goals55.8%

Home Over 2.553.1%

Home 3+ Goals53.1%

Home Exactly 223.6%

Away Exactly 222.8%

Home Exactly 116.8%

Away Exactly 115.5%

Home Exactly 05.9%

Away Exactly 05.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)72.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home72.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)60.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away60.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)56.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home56.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)43.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 115.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.2%

Away to win by 3+15.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 115.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.0%

Home to win by 3+13.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 212.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.2%

Home to win by 211.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.585.9%

Away & Over 2.540.8%

Away & BTTS37.5%

Home & Over 2.537.1%

Home & BTTS34.3%

Draw & BTTS16.7%

Draw & Over 2.514.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.2%

Away & No BTTS5.6%

Home & No BTTS5.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Draw & Under 2.52.9%

BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Away & Under 2.52.3%

Home & Under 2.52.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.5%

HT Over 1.573.1%

HT Both Teams Score52.7%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Away Win38.1%

HT Home Win35.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Away/Away28.1%

HT Under 1.526.9%

HT Draw26.4%

HT/FT Home/Home25.2%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.7%

HT Under 0.57.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

Corners (12)

Away Most Corners85.5%

Away Over 4.5 Corners82.7%

Over 8.5 Corners68.6%

Under 11.5 Corners67.8%

Over 9.5 Corners56.3%

Under 10.5 Corners56.2%

Over 10.5 Corners43.8%

Under 9.5 Corners43.7%

Over 11.5 Corners32.2%

Under 8.5 Corners31.4%

Home Over 4.5 Corners21.3%

Home Most Corners8.2%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards81.1%

Over 2.5 Cards73.6%

Under 4.5 Cards66.1%

Over 3.5 Cards53.3%

Under 3.5 Cards46.7%

Over 4.5 Cards33.9%

Under 2.5 Cards26.4%

Over 5.5 Cards18.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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