France · Ligue 1

Auxerre vs Nice

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Auxerre 41.1% Draw 28.9% Nice 30.0%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

77%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Auxerre: 9 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.6%

Exact-score model probability

Auxerre

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 11:13 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2.17

Nice

D L D W D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Auxerre 2wins ·2 draws ·Nice 1wins

Auxerre 2-1 NiceMay 10, 2026

Auxerre 1-3 NiceAug 23, 2025

Auxerre 1-1 NiceMar 14, 2025

Auxerre 2-1 NiceAug 18, 2024

Auxerre 1-1 NiceMar 3, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Auxerre win41.1%

Draw28.9%

Nice win30.0%

Over 1.5 goals71.2%

Over 2.5 goals74.3%

Over 3.5 goals23.3%

Both teams to score64.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.8%

Home Team to Score

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)80.5%

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Draw No Bet - Home75.8%

Both Halves Over 0.567.1%

Goal in Both Halves67.1%

Home Win60.9%

Draw or Away (X2)39.0%

Draw No Bet - Away24.2%

Draw19.6%

Away Win19.4%

Exactly 1 Goal10.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Under 5.5 Goals86.4%

Over 1.5 Goals85.9%

Under 4.5 Goals73.4%

Over 2.5 Goals67.0%

2-4 Goals59.3%

Under 3.5 Goals54.7%

1-3 Goals51.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals45.3%

4+ Goals45.3%

2-3 Goals40.6%

3-4 Goals40.5%

Under 2.5 Goals33.0%

1-2 Goals29.8%

Over 4.5 Goals26.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.7%

Exactly 2 Goals18.8%

Under 1.5 Goals14.1%

Over 5.5 Goals13.6%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals3.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.4%

Away Team to Score70.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.4%

Home Clean Sheet30.0%

Home Win to Nil26.8%

Away Clean Sheet10.5%

Away Win to Nil7.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.4%

Away Over 0.570.0%

Home Over 1.565.7%

Home Over 2.539.1%

Home 3+ Goals39.1%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.533.9%

Away Exactly 030.0%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 123.7%

Away Exactly 221.7%

Away Over 2.512.1%

Away 3+ Goals12.1%

Home Exactly 010.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.2%

Home to win by 122.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.5%

Home to win by 3+20.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 218.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.2%

Away to win by 25.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.3%

Away to win by 3+2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.0%

Home & Over 2.545.8%

Home & BTTS34.1%

Home & No BTTS26.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.4%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Home & Under 2.515.1%

Away & Over 2.513.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.0%

Away & BTTS12.0%

Draw & Under 2.511.7%

BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Draw & Over 2.57.9%

Away & No BTTS7.4%

Away & Under 2.56.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.9%

HT Under 1.554.0%

HT Home Win46.3%

HT Over 1.546.0%

2nd Half More Goals46.0%

HT/FT Home/Home40.0%

HT Draw34.4%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score26.6%

Equal Goals Each Half22.1%

HT Under 0.521.1%

HT Away Win19.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.3%

HT/FT Away/Away11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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