France · Ligue 1

Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Auxerre 41.5% Draw 27.3% Stade Brestois 29 31.2%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Auxerre: 9 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Auxerre

W L L L W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 9:12 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2

Stade Brestois 29

L W D D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Auxerre 2wins ·1 draws ·Stade Brestois 29 2wins

Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29Mar 21, 2026

Auxerre 0-2 Stade Brestois 29Jan 4, 2026

Auxerre 2-2 Stade Brestois 29Feb 14, 2025

Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29Sep 27, 2024

Auxerre 0-1 Stade Brestois 29May 14, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Auxerre win41.5%

Draw27.3%

Stade Brestois 29 win31.2%

Over 1.5 goals75.6%

Over 2.5 goals82.9%

Over 3.5 goals28.2%

Both teams to score73.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.8%

Home Over 0.5

91.8%

Over 1.5 Goals

89.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.9%

Home or Draw (1X)81.7%

Draw No Bet - Home77.8%

Both Halves Over 0.572.0%

Goal in Both Halves72.0%

Home Win63.7%

Draw or Away (X2)36.2%

Draw No Bet - Away22.2%

Away Win18.2%

Draw17.9%

Exactly 1 Goal8.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals89.3%

Under 5.5 Goals81.4%

Over 2.5 Goals73.3%

Under 4.5 Goals66.5%

2-4 Goals55.8%

Over 3.5 Goals52.9%

4+ Goals52.9%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals47.1%

1-3 Goals44.8%

3-4 Goals39.8%

2-3 Goals36.4%

Over 4.5 Goals33.5%

Under 2.5 Goals26.7%

1-2 Goals24.4%

Exactly 3 Goals20.4%

Over 5.5 Goals18.6%

Exactly 2 Goals16.0%

Under 1.5 Goals10.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.8%

Away Team to Score72.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.2%

Home Clean Sheet27.2%

Home Win to Nil25.0%

Away Clean Sheet8.1%

Away Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.8%

Away Over 0.572.7%

Home Over 1.571.5%

Home Over 2.545.9%

Home 3+ Goals45.9%

Away Over 1.537.3%

Away Exactly 135.4%

Away Exactly 027.2%

Home Exactly 225.6%

Away Exactly 223.0%

Home Exactly 120.3%

Away Over 2.514.3%

Away 3+ Goals14.3%

Home Exactly 08.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away75.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)63.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)42.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home42.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)36.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away36.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home24.2%

Home to win by 3+24.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 121.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 218.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.9%

Away to win by 110.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 24.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.4%

Away to win by 3+2.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.6%

Home & Over 2.551.2%

Home & BTTS38.8%

Home & No BTTS25.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.4%

Draw & BTTS15.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.7%

Away & Over 2.513.5%

Home & Under 2.512.5%

Away & BTTS12.3%

Draw & Under 2.59.4%

Draw & Over 2.58.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.2%

Away & No BTTS5.9%

Away & Under 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.1%

HT Over 1.551.2%

HT Home Win49.0%

HT Under 1.548.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.0%

HT/FT Home/Home42.8%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw32.0%

HT Both Teams Score30.1%

Equal Goals Each Half20.9%

HT Away Win19.0%

HT Under 0.517.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.9%

HT/FT Away/Away10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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