Italy · Serie B

Avellino vs Palermo

Kick-off 16:15 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Avellino 13.3% Draw 26.7% Palermo 60.0%

Over 2.5 - 41% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

60%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 16.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Palermo: 3 points versus 6 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.58 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

16.1%

Exact-score model probability

Avellino

L W L

Form 1-0-2 Goals 1:4 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Palermo

W L L W

Form 2-0-2 Goals 5:7 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 1.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Avellino win13.3%

Draw26.7%

Palermo win60.0%

Over 1.5 goals69.2%

Over 2.5 goals41.4%

Over 3.5 goals20.8%

Both teams to score41.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.2%

Over 0.5 Goals

90.3%

Draw or Away (X2)

85.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)85.3%

Draw No Bet - Away80.7%

Home or Away (12)76.1%

Away Win61.4%

Both Halves Over 0.547.1%

Goal in Both Halves47.1%

Home or Draw (1X)38.6%

Draw23.9%

Exactly 1 Goal22.6%

Draw No Bet - Home19.3%

Home Win14.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.8%

Under 4.5 Goals91.2%

Over 0.5 Goals90.3%

Under 3.5 Goals79.2%

1-3 Goals69.5%

Over 1.5 Goals67.8%

2-4 Goals59.0%

Under 2.5 Goals58.6%

Total Goals Even50.5%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

1-2 Goals48.9%

2-3 Goals46.9%

Over 2.5 Goals41.4%

3-4 Goals32.6%

Under 1.5 Goals32.2%

Exactly 2 Goals26.4%

Over 3.5 Goals20.8%

4+ Goals20.8%

Exactly 3 Goals20.6%

Under 0.5 Goals9.7%

Exactly 0 Goals9.7%

Over 4.5 Goals8.8%

Over 5.5 Goals3.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score81.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)60.4%

Away Clean Sheet51.1%

Home Team to Score48.9%

Away Win to Nil41.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)39.6%

Home Clean Sheet18.9%

Home Win to Nil9.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.581.1%

Home Exactly 051.1%

Away Over 1.549.6%

Home Over 0.548.9%

Home Exactly 134.3%

Away Exactly 131.5%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Away Over 2.523.4%

Away 3+ Goals23.4%

Away Exactly 018.9%

Home Over 1.514.6%

Home Exactly 211.5%

Home Over 2.53.1%

Home 3+ Goals3.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away85.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)65.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home65.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)61.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)38.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home38.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)34.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away34.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.9%

Away to win by 126.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.2%

Away to win by 219.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.3%

Away to win by 3+15.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.8%

Home to win by 110.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.1%

Home to win by 23.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.8%

Home to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.547.8%

Away & No BTTS41.5%

Away & Over 2.531.9%

Away & Under 2.529.5%

BTTS & Over 2.528.9%

Draw & Under 2.520.4%

Away & BTTS20.0%

Draw & BTTS14.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.5%

BTTS & Under 2.510.8%

Home & No BTTS9.2%

Home & Under 2.58.6%

Home & Over 2.56.1%

Home & BTTS5.5%

Draw & Over 2.53.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.571.7%

HT Over 0.565.1%

HT Draw43.3%

HT Away Win43.0%

2nd Half More Goals41.8%

HT/FT Away/Away38.6%

HT Under 0.534.9%

1st Half More Goals30.4%

HT Over 1.528.3%

Equal Goals Each Half27.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.4%

HT Both Teams Score13.8%

HT Home Win13.7%

HT/FT Home/Home7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

HT/FT Away/Home0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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