Italy · Serie B

Avellino vs Sampdoria

Kick-off 19:30 · Fri, Oct 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Avellino 46.6% Draw 37.7% Sampdoria 15.7%

Over 2.5 - 19% BTTS - 26%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 22.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Sampdoria: 3 points versus 5 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

22.8%

Exact-score model probability

Avellino

L W L

Form 1-0-2 Goals 1:4 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Sampdoria

L W L D L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Avellino win46.6%

Draw37.7%

Sampdoria win15.7%

Over 1.5 goals45.4%

Over 2.5 goals18.9%

Over 3.5 goals6.5%

Both teams to score25.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Under 1.5

85.4%

Home or Draw (1X)

82.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

82.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)82.8%

Draw No Bet - Home73.6%

Home or Away (12)65.2%

Draw or Away (X2)52.0%

Home Win48.0%

Draw34.8%

Exactly 1 Goal33.6%

Both Halves Over 0.527.4%

Goal in Both Halves27.4%

Draw No Bet - Away26.4%

Away Win17.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.6%

Under 4.5 Goals98.2%

Under 3.5 Goals93.5%

Under 2.5 Goals81.1%

Over 0.5 Goals77.5%

1-3 Goals71.0%

1-2 Goals58.6%

Under 1.5 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Even52.5%

Total Goals Odd47.5%

Over 1.5 Goals43.9%

2-4 Goals42.1%

2-3 Goals37.5%

Exactly 2 Goals25.0%

Under 0.5 Goals22.5%

Exactly 0 Goals22.5%

Over 2.5 Goals18.9%

3-4 Goals17.1%

Exactly 3 Goals12.5%

Over 3.5 Goals6.5%

4+ Goals6.5%

Over 4.5 Goals1.8%

Over 5.5 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)75.7%

Home Team to Score63.7%

Home Clean Sheet61.9%

Home Win to Nil39.4%

Away Team to Score38.1%

Away Clean Sheet36.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)24.3%

Away Win to Nil13.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.563.7%

Away Exactly 061.9%

Away Over 0.538.1%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Home Exactly 036.3%

Away Exactly 129.7%

Home Over 1.526.9%

Home Exactly 218.6%

Away Over 1.58.4%

Home Over 2.58.3%

Home 3+ Goals8.3%

Away Exactly 27.1%

Away Over 2.51.3%

Away 3+ Goals1.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)52.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away52.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw28.8%

Home to win by 128.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.6%

Away to win by 113.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.5%

Home to win by 213.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.7%

Home to win by 3+5.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.0%

Away to win by 23.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.570.2%

Home & No BTTS39.4%

Home & Under 2.534.3%

Draw & Under 2.533.4%

Away & No BTTS13.9%

Home & Over 2.513.7%

Away & Under 2.513.4%

BTTS & Over 2.513.3%

Draw & BTTS12.3%

BTTS & Under 2.510.9%

Home & BTTS8.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.6%

Away & Over 2.53.8%

Away & BTTS3.3%

Draw & Over 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.585.4%

HT Draw56.3%

HT Under 0.551.1%

HT Over 0.548.9%

Equal Goals Each Half36.7%

2nd Half More Goals36.0%

HT Home Win30.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw28.5%

1st Half More Goals27.3%

HT/FT Home/Home27.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.7%

HT Over 1.514.6%

HT Away Win12.9%

HT/FT Away/Away8.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.0%

HT Both Teams Score7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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