Netherlands · Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

AZ Alkmaar 66.2% Draw 23.1% ADO Den Haag 10.6%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 86%

⚠️ AIs disagree

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 10 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

86%

Market agrees with this pick

AZ Alkmaar

D D D D W W

Form 2-4-0 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

ADO Den Haag

L L L L D W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 7:16 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.67

🏥 AZ Alkmaar unavailable

J. Hornkamp · Injury

J. Clasie · Inactive

D. Kasius · Inactive

M. Sin · Inactive

📈 Probability Breakdown

AZ Alkmaar win66.2%

Draw23.1%

ADO Den Haag win10.6%

Over 1.5 goals74.8%

Over 2.5 goals94.3%

Over 3.5 goals26.6%

Both teams to score80.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

90.6%

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.6%

Goal in Both Halves

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home90.6%

Both Halves Over 0.590.6%

Goal in Both Halves90.6%

Home or Draw (1X)87.8%

Home or Away (12)87.2%

Home Win79.0%

Draw or Away (X2)17.0%

Draw No Bet - Away9.4%

Draw8.8%

Away Win8.2%

Exactly 1 Goal1.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals90.5%

Over 3.5 Goals82.3%

4+ Goals82.3%

Over 4.5 Goals69.7%

Over 5.5 Goals54.1%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals45.9%

Under 4.5 Goals30.3%

2-4 Goals24.8%

3-4 Goals20.8%

Under 3.5 Goals17.7%

1-3 Goals13.4%

2-3 Goals12.2%

Under 2.5 Goals9.5%

Exactly 3 Goals8.2%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

1-2 Goals5.3%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals4.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score77.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.0%

Home Clean Sheet18.0%

Home Win to Nil17.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.577.9%

Away Over 1.547.8%

Away Exactly 130.1%

Away Exactly 225.2%

Away Over 2.522.6%

Away 3+ Goals22.6%

Away Exactly 018.0%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)85.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away75.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)65.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home65.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)62.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away62.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)50.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home50.0%

Home to win by 3+50.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)45.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away45.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)33.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home33.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)30.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away30.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)20.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home20.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away17.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.0%

Home to win by 113.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home10.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.8%

Away to win by 14.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 22.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.2%

Away to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.575.9%

BTTS & Over 2.575.5%

Home & BTTS61.1%

Home & No BTTS17.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.0%

Draw & BTTS8.6%

Away & Over 2.57.6%

Away & BTTS7.3%

Draw & Over 2.57.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.9%

Home & Under 2.53.1%

Draw & Under 2.51.8%

BTTS & Under 2.51.6%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.8%

HT Over 1.576.5%

HT Home Win67.1%

HT/FT Home/Home63.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.5%

HT Both Teams Score45.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.523.5%

HT Draw20.0%

Equal Goals Each Half16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT Away Win12.9%

HT Under 0.56.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Away/Away4.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

AZ Alkmaar

J. Hornkamp Injury

J. Clasie Inactive

D. Kasius Inactive

M. Sin Inactive

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

AZ Alkmaar win50%

Draw50%

ADO Den Haag win0%

AdviceDouble chance : AZ Alkmaar or draw

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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