Netherlands · Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles

Kick-off 17:45 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

AZ Alkmaar 56.3% Draw 23.7% GO Ahead Eagles 20.0%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 12 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

AZ Alkmaar

W W W D D D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 14:7 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.17

GO Ahead Eagles

W D W L L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 13:12 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

AZ Alkmaar 2wins ·3 draws ·GO Ahead Eagles 0wins

AZ Alkmaar 0-0 GO Ahead EaglesApr 23, 2026

AZ Alkmaar 2-2 GO Ahead EaglesDec 7, 2025

AZ Alkmaar 3-0 GO Ahead EaglesMay 4, 2025

AZ Alkmaar 2-2 GO Ahead EaglesOct 27, 2024

AZ Alkmaar 3-0 GO Ahead EaglesMay 12, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

AZ Alkmaar win56.3%

Draw23.7%

GO Ahead Eagles win20.0%

Over 1.5 goals83.3%

Over 2.5 goals88.9%

Over 3.5 goals38.5%

Both teams to score72.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.3%

Draw No Bet - Home89.9%

Home or Away (12)87.7%

Both Halves Over 0.579.9%

Goal in Both Halves79.9%

Home Win78.8%

Draw or Away (X2)20.4%

Draw11.5%

Draw No Bet - Away10.1%

Away Win8.9%

Exactly 1 Goal4.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals93.3%

Over 2.5 Goals82.3%

Under 5.5 Goals70.4%

Over 3.5 Goals65.7%

4+ Goals65.7%

Under 4.5 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Over 4.5 Goals46.8%

2-4 Goals46.5%

3-4 Goals35.5%

Under 3.5 Goals34.3%

1-3 Goals32.5%

Over 5.5 Goals29.6%

2-3 Goals27.6%

Under 2.5 Goals17.7%

Exactly 3 Goals16.6%

1-2 Goals15.8%

Exactly 2 Goals11.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score67.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.5%

Home Clean Sheet31.4%

Home Win to Nil30.3%

Away Clean Sheet3.4%

Away Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.584.4%

Away Over 0.567.8%

Home Over 2.565.1%

Home 3+ Goals65.1%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.531.7%

Away Exactly 031.4%

Away Exactly 220.8%

Home Exactly 219.4%

Home Exactly 111.4%

Away Over 2.510.9%

Away 3+ Goals10.9%

Home Exactly 03.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away85.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away73.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)56.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away56.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)42.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home42.6%

Home to win by 3+42.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away37.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)25.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home25.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away20.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.2%

Home to win by 219.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 117.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.8%

Away to win by 15.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 22.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.569.1%

BTTS & Over 2.561.3%

Home & BTTS48.5%

Home & No BTTS30.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.7%

Draw & BTTS10.5%

Home & Under 2.59.7%

Away & Over 2.56.9%

Away & BTTS6.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.3%

Draw & Under 2.55.2%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Away & No BTTS2.3%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.0%

HT Home Win62.2%

HT Over 1.560.6%

HT/FT Home/Home58.2%

2nd Half More Goals48.7%

HT Under 1.539.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score31.6%

HT Draw25.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.0%

HT Under 0.513.0%

HT Away Win12.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Away4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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