Netherlands · Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen

Full time · 4:3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

55% confidence

AZ Alkmaar 55.4% Draw 24.0% Groningen 20.6%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 95%

✓ Pick was correct (4:3)

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Groningen: 5 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.6%

Exact-score model probability

AZ Alkmaar

L L D L W D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Groningen

L D L W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 15:12 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

AZ Alkmaar 3wins ·1 draws ·Groningen 1wins

AZ Alkmaar 0-3 GroningenMar 22, 2026

AZ Alkmaar 4-1 GroningenAug 10, 2025

AZ Alkmaar 3-0 GroningenMay 11, 2025

AZ Alkmaar 0-0 GroningenAug 25, 2024

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 GroningenMar 11, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

AZ Alkmaar win55.4%

Draw24.0%

Groningen win20.6%

Over 1.5 goals82.6%

Over 2.5 goals98.2%

Over 3.5 goals37.5%

Both teams to score94.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.7%

Both Halves Over 0.5

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.8%

Goal in Both Halves89.8%

Home or Away (12)83.9%

Home or Draw (1X)75.5%

Draw No Bet - Home72.3%

Home Win60.7%

Draw or Away (X2)38.0%

Draw No Bet - Away27.7%

Away Win23.2%

Draw14.8%

Exactly 1 Goal1.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals97.0%

Over 2.5 Goals92.5%

Over 3.5 Goals83.5%

4+ Goals83.5%

Over 4.5 Goals70.1%

Over 5.5 Goals54.1%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Under 5.5 Goals45.9%

Under 4.5 Goals29.9%

2-4 Goals26.8%

3-4 Goals22.4%

Under 3.5 Goals16.5%

1-3 Goals14.9%

2-3 Goals13.4%

Exactly 3 Goals8.9%

Under 2.5 Goals7.5%

1-2 Goals6.0%

Exactly 2 Goals4.5%

Under 1.5 Goals3.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score89.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.9%

Home Clean Sheet9.2%

Home Win to Nil9.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.7%

Away Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Away Over 0.589.5%

Home Over 1.586.4%

Home Over 2.568.9%

Home 3+ Goals68.9%

Away Over 1.567.6%

Away Over 2.541.7%

Away 3+ Goals41.7%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 121.9%

Home Exactly 217.5%

Home Exactly 19.7%

Away Exactly 09.2%

Home Exactly 02.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)70.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away70.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)44.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home44.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.5%

Home to win by 3+28.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.6%

Home to win by 116.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 215.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.9%

Away to win by 110.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.7%

Away to win by 26.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.7%

Away to win by 3+5.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.584.9%

Home & Over 2.558.1%

Home & BTTS51.7%

Away & Over 2.522.0%

Away & BTTS20.8%

Draw & BTTS14.5%

Draw & Over 2.512.4%

Home & No BTTS9.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Home & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Under 2.52.4%

Away & No BTTS2.4%

BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Away & Under 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.3%

HT Over 1.575.1%

HT Both Teams Score52.7%

2nd Half More Goals51.3%

HT Home Win50.5%

HT/FT Home/Home42.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.524.9%

HT Away Win24.8%

HT Draw24.7%

Equal Goals Each Half16.2%

HT/FT Away/Away14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.2%

HT Under 0.56.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.1%

HT/FT Away/Home6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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