UEFA Europa League

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

AZ Alkmaar 72.7% Draw 12.8% Hapoel Beer Sheva 14.5%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 13 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.3%

Exact-score model probability

AZ Alkmaar

L W D W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:7 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Hapoel Beer Sheva

L W W W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

AZ Alkmaar win72.7%

Draw12.8%

Hapoel Beer Sheva win14.5%

Over 1.5 goals98.6%

Over 2.5 goals93.9%

Over 3.5 goals85.0%

Both teams to score85.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.1%

Goal in Both Halves90.1%

Home or Away (12)85.7%

Home or Draw (1X)83.3%

Draw No Bet - Home83.2%

Home Win71.3%

Draw or Away (X2)26.4%

Draw No Bet - Away16.8%

Away Win14.4%

Draw12.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals96.0%

Over 2.5 Goals91.7%

Over 3.5 Goals83.0%

4+ Goals83.0%

Over 4.5 Goals69.8%

Over 5.5 Goals53.9%

Total Goals Even48.9%

Total Goals Odd48.8%

Under 5.5 Goals46.1%

Under 4.5 Goals30.2%

2-4 Goals26.2%

3-4 Goals21.9%

Under 3.5 Goals17.0%

1-3 Goals14.5%

2-3 Goals13.0%

Exactly 3 Goals8.7%

Under 2.5 Goals8.3%

1-2 Goals5.7%

Exactly 2 Goals4.3%

Under 1.5 Goals4.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score84.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.0%

Home Clean Sheet13.2%

Home Win to Nil13.0%

Away Clean Sheet1.7%

Away Win to Nil1.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 1.588.9%

Away Over 0.584.5%

Home Over 2.574.6%

Home 3+ Goals74.6%

Away Over 1.558.0%

Away Over 2.531.6%

Away 3+ Goals31.6%

Away Exactly 126.4%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 214.3%

Away Exactly 013.2%

Home Exactly 17.1%

Home Exactly 01.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away84.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away73.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)58.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away58.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)55.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home55.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away41.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)39.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home39.3%

Home to win by 3+39.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)24.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home24.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.5%

Home to win by 216.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 115.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.6%

Away to win by 17.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.0%

Away to win by 24.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.7%

Away to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.0%

Home & Over 2.568.4%

Home & BTTS58.3%

Away & Over 2.513.5%

Home & No BTTS13.0%

Away & BTTS12.9%

Draw & BTTS11.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.7%

Draw & Over 2.59.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Home & Under 2.52.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.1%

BTTS & Under 2.51.9%

Away & No BTTS1.5%

Away & Under 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.4%

HT Over 1.575.5%

HT Home Win59.1%

HT/FT Home/Home53.3%

2nd Half More Goals51.4%

HT Both Teams Score49.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.524.5%

HT Draw22.7%

HT Away Win18.2%

Equal Goals Each Half16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT/FT Away/Away8.4%

HT Under 0.56.6%

HT/FT Away/Home6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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