UEFA Europa League

AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus

Kick-off 21:00 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

AZ Alkmaar 57.5% Draw 20.2% Juventus 22.3%

Over 2.5 - 78% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Juventus: 5 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.3%

Exact-score model probability

AZ Alkmaar

L L D L W D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Juventus

W L W L D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

AZ Alkmaar win57.5%

Draw20.2%

Juventus win22.3%

Over 1.5 goals92.4%

Over 2.5 goals77.7%

Over 3.5 goals58.6%

Both teams to score73.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.9%

Home Over 0.5

91.9%

Over 1.5 Goals

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.4%

Home or Draw (1X)76.8%

Both Halves Over 0.575.4%

Goal in Both Halves75.4%

Draw No Bet - Home71.6%

Home Win58.3%

Draw or Away (X2)41.6%

Draw No Bet - Away28.4%

Away Win23.1%

Draw18.5%

Exactly 1 Goal6.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals91.5%

Over 2.5 Goals77.6%

Under 5.5 Goals77.0%

Under 4.5 Goals60.9%

Over 3.5 Goals58.6%

4+ Goals58.6%

2-4 Goals52.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals41.4%

1-3 Goals39.7%

Over 4.5 Goals39.1%

3-4 Goals38.5%

2-3 Goals32.9%

Over 5.5 Goals23.0%

Under 2.5 Goals22.4%

1-2 Goals20.7%

Exactly 3 Goals19.0%

Exactly 2 Goals13.9%

Under 1.5 Goals8.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.9%

Away Team to Score79.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.1%

Home Clean Sheet20.7%

Home Win to Nil19.0%

Away Clean Sheet8.0%

Away Win to Nil6.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.9%

Away Over 0.579.2%

Home Over 1.571.8%

Away Over 1.546.7%

Home Over 2.546.3%

Home 3+ Goals46.3%

Away Exactly 132.6%

Away Exactly 225.7%

Home Exactly 225.5%

Away Over 2.521.0%

Away 3+ Goals21.0%

Away Exactly 020.7%

Home Exactly 120.2%

Home Exactly 08.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.2%

Home to win by 3+21.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.3%

Home to win by 120.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 112.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.5%

Away to win by 26.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.9%

Away to win by 3+3.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.566.3%

Home & Over 2.548.8%

Home & BTTS39.3%

Home & No BTTS19.0%

Away & Over 2.518.4%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

Away & BTTS16.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.2%

Draw & Over 2.510.3%

Home & Under 2.59.4%

Draw & Under 2.58.2%

BTTS & Under 2.56.6%

Away & No BTTS6.3%

Away & Under 2.54.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.2%

HT Over 1.555.1%

2nd Half More Goals47.8%

HT Home Win45.9%

HT Under 1.544.9%

HT/FT Home/Home38.6%

HT Both Teams Score34.5%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.3%

HT Away Win22.8%

Equal Goals Each Half20.0%

HT Under 0.515.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT/FT Away/Away13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions