Netherlands · Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar

Kick-off 13:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

62% confidence

AZ Alkmaar 62.2% Draw 22.8% Telstar 15.0%

Over 2.5 - 84% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 16 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.3%

Exact-score model probability

AZ Alkmaar

D W W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 17:6 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1

Telstar

D L D L L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 2

AZ Alkmaar 2wins ·0 draws ·Telstar 0wins

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 TelstarJan 25, 2026

AZ Alkmaar 2-1 TelstarOct 5, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

AZ Alkmaar win62.2%

Draw22.8%

Telstar win15.0%

Over 1.5 goals81.7%

Over 2.5 goals83.6%

Over 3.5 goals35.8%

Both teams to score77.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.0%

Home Over 0.5

91.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.4%

Home or Draw (1X)81.2%

Draw No Bet - Home77.1%

Both Halves Over 0.570.3%

Goal in Both Halves70.3%

Home Win62.7%

Draw or Away (X2)37.2%

Draw No Bet - Away22.9%

Away Win18.7%

Draw18.5%

Exactly 1 Goal9.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals88.2%

Under 5.5 Goals83.3%

Over 2.5 Goals71.1%

Under 4.5 Goals69.1%

2-4 Goals57.2%

Over 3.5 Goals50.2%

4+ Goals50.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals49.8%

1-3 Goals47.2%

3-4 Goals40.2%

2-3 Goals37.9%

Over 4.5 Goals30.9%

Under 2.5 Goals28.9%

1-2 Goals26.3%

Exactly 3 Goals20.9%

Exactly 2 Goals17.0%

Over 5.5 Goals16.7%

Under 1.5 Goals11.8%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.0%

Away Team to Score71.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.6%

Home Clean Sheet28.1%

Home Win to Nil25.6%

Away Clean Sheet8.9%

Away Win to Nil6.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.0%

Away Over 0.571.8%

Home Over 1.569.5%

Home Over 2.543.5%

Home 3+ Goals43.5%

Away Over 1.536.1%

Away Exactly 135.7%

Away Exactly 028.1%

Home Exactly 226.0%

Away Exactly 222.6%

Home Exactly 121.5%

Away Over 2.513.5%

Away 3+ Goals13.5%

Home Exactly 08.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)58.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away58.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)22.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home22.8%

Home to win by 3+22.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.5%

Home to win by 121.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 218.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.3%

Away to win by 111.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.0%

Away to win by 25.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.4%

Away to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.557.7%

Home & Over 2.549.3%

Home & BTTS37.1%

Home & No BTTS25.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.1%

Draw & BTTS16.0%

Away & Over 2.513.5%

Home & Under 2.513.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.4%

Away & BTTS12.3%

Draw & Under 2.510.2%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

BTTS & Under 2.57.7%

Away & No BTTS6.4%

Away & Under 2.55.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.0%

HT Under 1.550.6%

HT Over 1.549.4%

HT Home Win48.0%

2nd Half More Goals46.7%

HT/FT Home/Home41.8%

HT Draw32.8%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score28.8%

Equal Goals Each Half21.3%

HT Away Win19.2%

HT Under 0.519.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.0%

HT/FT Away/Away10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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