Netherlands · Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente

Full time · 0:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

AZ Alkmaar 42.3% Draw 28.1% Twente 29.6%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 93%

✓ Pick was correct (0:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: AZ Alkmaar 3 wins, 1 draws, Twente 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

AZ Alkmaar

D L W D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 13:9 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Twente

L D W W W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

AZ Alkmaar 3wins ·1 draws ·Twente 1wins

AZ Alkmaar 2-2 TwenteMay 3, 2026

AZ Alkmaar 0-1 TwenteNov 30, 2025

AZ Alkmaar 3-2 TwenteMay 25, 2025

AZ Alkmaar 3-2 TwenteMay 14, 2025

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 TwenteDec 21, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

AZ Alkmaar win42.3%

Draw28.1%

Twente win29.6%

Over 1.5 goals78.3%

Over 2.5 goals97.6%

Over 3.5 goals30.7%

Both teams to score93.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.9%

Both Halves Over 0.5

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.2%

Goal in Both Halves89.2%

Home or Away (12)83.9%

Home or Draw (1X)75.8%

Draw No Bet - Home72.5%

Home Win60.9%

Draw or Away (X2)37.9%

Draw No Bet - Away27.5%

Away Win23.0%

Draw14.9%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals96.9%

Over 2.5 Goals92.1%

Over 3.5 Goals82.6%

4+ Goals82.6%

Over 4.5 Goals68.7%

Over 5.5 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Under 5.5 Goals47.7%

Under 4.5 Goals31.3%

2-4 Goals28.2%

3-4 Goals23.4%

Under 3.5 Goals17.4%

1-3 Goals15.9%

2-3 Goals14.3%

Exactly 3 Goals9.5%

Under 2.5 Goals7.9%

1-2 Goals6.5%

Exactly 2 Goals4.8%

Under 1.5 Goals3.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score89.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.5%

Home Clean Sheet9.8%

Home Win to Nil9.5%

Away Clean Sheet2.8%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Away Over 0.589.0%

Home Over 1.585.9%

Home Over 2.568.0%

Home 3+ Goals68.0%

Away Over 1.566.4%

Away Over 2.540.2%

Away 3+ Goals40.2%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Away Exactly 122.6%

Home Exactly 218.0%

Home Exactly 110.1%

Away Exactly 09.8%

Home Exactly 02.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)70.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away70.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)44.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home44.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.4%

Home to win by 3+28.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.8%

Home to win by 116.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.9%

Away to win by 110.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.6%

Away to win by 26.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.5%

Away to win by 3+5.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.584.2%

Home & Over 2.558.1%

Home & BTTS51.4%

Away & Over 2.521.6%

Away & BTTS20.5%

Draw & BTTS14.6%

Draw & Over 2.512.3%

Home & No BTTS9.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Home & Under 2.52.8%

Draw & Under 2.52.6%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.9%

HT Over 1.574.1%

HT Both Teams Score51.7%

2nd Half More Goals51.2%

HT Home Win50.5%

HT/FT Home/Home42.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.525.9%

HT Draw24.9%

HT Away Win24.6%

Equal Goals Each Half16.4%

HT/FT Away/Away14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.3%

HT Under 0.57.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.1%

HT/FT Away/Home5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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