Netherlands · Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II

Kick-off 19:00 · Fri, Sep 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

82% confidence

AZ Alkmaar 81.5% Draw 12.9% Willem II 5.2%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

94%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 94.4% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 5.6% on the only losing outcome.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 16 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

94.4%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

5.6%

Only the uncovered result loses

AZ Alkmaar

W W W W W D

Form 5-1-0 Goals 19:8 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Willem II

L D L L W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:16 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.67

Head to head · last 4

AZ Alkmaar 2wins ·1 draws ·Willem II 1wins

AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Willem IIFeb 2, 2025

AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Willem IINov 10, 2024

AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Willem IIMar 20, 2022

AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Willem IIDec 18, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

AZ Alkmaar win81.5%

Draw12.9%

Willem II win5.2%

Over 1.5 goals87.2%

Over 2.5 goals93.9%

Over 3.5 goals47.1%

Both teams to score78.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.3%

Home or Draw (1X)

88.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.1%

Draw No Bet - Home87.9%

Home or Away (12)87.2%

Both Halves Over 0.585.0%

Goal in Both Halves85.0%

Home Win76.7%

Draw or Away (X2)21.9%

Draw No Bet - Away12.1%

Draw11.4%

Away Win10.5%

Exactly 1 Goal2.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals87.6%

Over 3.5 Goals74.5%

4+ Goals74.5%

Under 5.5 Goals59.9%

Over 4.5 Goals57.6%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Under 4.5 Goals42.4%

Over 5.5 Goals40.1%

2-4 Goals37.5%

3-4 Goals29.9%

Under 3.5 Goals25.5%

1-3 Goals23.5%

2-3 Goals20.6%

Exactly 3 Goals13.0%

Under 2.5 Goals12.4%

1-2 Goals10.5%

Exactly 2 Goals7.6%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score75.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.1%

Home Clean Sheet22.8%

Home Win to Nil22.2%

Away Clean Sheet2.4%

Away Win to Nil1.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.1%

Away Over 0.575.8%

Home Over 2.570.3%

Home 3+ Goals70.3%

Away Over 1.542.4%

Away Exactly 133.4%

Away Exactly 224.5%

Away Exactly 022.8%

Away Over 2.518.0%

Away 3+ Goals18.0%

Home Exactly 216.8%

Home Exactly 19.1%

Home Exactly 02.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away84.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)76.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)72.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away72.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)60.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home60.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)55.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away55.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)42.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home42.7%

Home to win by 3+42.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home26.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 217.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.1%

Home to win by 116.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.3%

Away to win by 16.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.8%

Away to win by 22.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.4%

Away to win by 3+1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.570.9%

Home & Over 2.570.7%

Home & BTTS54.5%

Home & No BTTS22.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.7%

Draw & BTTS10.8%

Away & Over 2.59.1%

Away & BTTS8.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.0%

Draw & Over 2.57.8%

Home & Under 2.56.0%

Draw & Under 2.53.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.1%

Away & No BTTS1.9%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.3%

HT Over 1.567.6%

HT Home Win61.8%

HT/FT Home/Home57.2%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

HT Both Teams Score39.2%

HT Under 1.532.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw23.8%

Equal Goals Each Half17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.7%

HT Away Win14.4%

HT Under 0.59.7%

HT/FT Away/Away5.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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