Brazil · Serie A

Bahia vs Flamengo

Kick-off 22:30 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Bahia 35.0% Draw 23.7% Flamengo 41.3%

Over 2.5 - 72% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Flamengo: 12 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Bahia

W L L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Flamengo

W D W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 10:4 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bahia win35.0%

Draw23.7%

Flamengo win41.3%

Over 1.5 goals89.6%

Over 2.5 goals71.7%

Over 3.5 goals50.9%

Both teams to score72.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 11.5 Corners

91.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

89.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

89.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.5%

Both Halves Over 0.570.7%

Goal in Both Halves70.7%

Draw or Away (X2)63.9%

Home or Draw (1X)57.5%

Draw No Bet - Away54.1%

Draw No Bet - Home45.9%

Away Win42.4%

Home Win36.1%

Draw21.5%

Exactly 1 Goal9.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals88.5%

Under 5.5 Goals82.8%

Over 2.5 Goals71.7%

Under 4.5 Goals68.5%

2-4 Goals57.0%

Over 3.5 Goals50.8%

4+ Goals50.8%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals49.2%

1-3 Goals46.7%

3-4 Goals40.1%

2-3 Goals37.6%

Over 4.5 Goals31.5%

Under 2.5 Goals28.3%

1-2 Goals25.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.8%

Over 5.5 Goals17.2%

Exactly 2 Goals16.8%

Under 1.5 Goals11.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score85.6%

Home Team to Score83.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.9%

Away Clean Sheet16.9%

Away Win to Nil14.5%

Home Clean Sheet14.4%

Home Win to Nil12.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.585.6%

Home Over 0.583.1%

Away Over 1.557.6%

Home Over 1.553.0%

Away Over 2.530.6%

Away 3+ Goals30.6%

Home Exactly 130.1%

Away Exactly 127.9%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Home Over 2.526.3%

Home 3+ Goals26.3%

Home Exactly 016.9%

Away Exactly 014.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)81.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away81.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home76.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)63.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away63.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)57.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home57.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)42.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)36.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.1%

Away to win by 119.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home18.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.5%

Home to win by 117.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.7%

Away to win by 212.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.7%

Home to win by 210.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.6%

Away to win by 3+10.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.8%

Home to win by 3+7.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.7%

Away & Over 2.533.1%

Away & BTTS28.0%

Home & Over 2.527.9%

Home & BTTS24.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.9%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Away & No BTTS14.5%

Home & No BTTS12.0%

Draw & Under 2.510.8%

Draw & Over 2.510.7%

Away & Under 2.59.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Home & Under 2.58.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.2%

HT Under 1.550.2%

HT Over 1.549.8%

2nd Half More Goals46.8%

HT Away Win34.8%

HT Draw34.4%

HT Both Teams Score32.0%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Home Win30.8%

HT/FT Away/Away26.3%

HT/FT Home/Home21.8%

Equal Goals Each Half21.2%

HT Under 0.518.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners91.8%

Under 10.5 Corners85.9%

Under 9.5 Corners77.2%

Under 8.5 Corners65.6%

Away Most Corners61.2%

Away Over 4.5 Corners45.2%

Over 8.5 Corners34.4%

Home Most Corners25.5%

Over 9.5 Corners22.8%

Home Over 4.5 Corners20.6%

Over 10.5 Corners14.1%

Over 11.5 Corners8.2%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards92.8%

Under 4.5 Cards83.6%

Under 3.5 Cards67.5%

Over 2.5 Cards54.8%

Under 2.5 Cards45.2%

Over 3.5 Cards32.5%

Over 4.5 Cards16.4%

Over 0.5 Red Cards11.5%

Over 5.5 Cards7.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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