Brazil · Serie A

Bahia vs Mirassol

Kick-off 23:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

70% confidence

Bahia 69.8% Draw 17.1% Mirassol 13.1%

Over 2.5 - 77% BTTS - 67%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bahia: 12 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

Bahia

L L W W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Mirassol

D W D W L D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bahia win69.8%

Draw17.1%

Mirassol win13.1%

Over 1.5 goals92.0%

Over 2.5 goals76.9%

Over 3.5 goals57.6%

Both teams to score67.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.0%

Home or Draw (1X)

85.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

85.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.9%

Home or Away (12)84.3%

Draw No Bet - Home83.5%

Both Halves Over 0.574.8%

Goal in Both Halves74.8%

Home Win70.4%

Draw or Away (X2)29.3%

Draw No Bet - Away16.5%

Draw15.5%

Away Win13.9%

Exactly 1 Goal7.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals91.0%

Under 5.5 Goals77.9%

Over 2.5 Goals76.7%

Under 4.5 Goals62.1%

Over 3.5 Goals57.4%

4+ Goals57.4%

2-4 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals42.6%

1-3 Goals40.6%

3-4 Goals38.8%

Over 4.5 Goals37.9%

2-3 Goals33.5%

Under 2.5 Goals23.3%

Over 5.5 Goals22.1%

1-2 Goals21.3%

Exactly 3 Goals19.3%

Exactly 2 Goals14.3%

Under 1.5 Goals9.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.8%

Away Team to Score70.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.8%

Home Clean Sheet29.3%

Home Win to Nil27.6%

Away Clean Sheet5.9%

Away Win to Nil4.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.8%

Home Over 1.577.1%

Away Over 0.570.4%

Home Over 2.553.5%

Home 3+ Goals53.5%

Away Exactly 135.9%

Away Over 1.534.5%

Away Exactly 029.3%

Home Exactly 223.6%

Away Exactly 222.0%

Home Exactly 116.7%

Away Over 2.512.5%

Away 3+ Goals12.5%

Home Exactly 05.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)83.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away83.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)70.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)68.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away68.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)50.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home50.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)49.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away49.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)31.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home31.0%

Home to win by 3+31.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)29.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away29.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.0%

Home to win by 120.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.4%

Home to win by 219.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.7%

Away to win by 18.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.6%

Away to win by 23.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.6%

Away to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.560.2%

Home & Over 2.558.5%

Home & BTTS42.8%

Home & No BTTS27.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.5%

Draw & BTTS13.7%

Home & Under 2.511.9%

Away & Over 2.510.4%

Away & BTTS9.7%

Draw & Under 2.57.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.7%

BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Away & No BTTS4.2%

Away & Under 2.53.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.9%

HT Over 1.554.4%

HT Home Win54.3%

HT/FT Home/Home49.0%

2nd Half More Goals47.6%

HT Under 1.545.6%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score30.5%

HT Draw29.6%

Equal Goals Each Half20.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.4%

HT Away Win16.1%

HT Under 0.516.1%

HT/FT Away/Away7.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners77.0%

Under 10.5 Corners66.6%

Over 8.5 Corners58.7%

Under 9.5 Corners54.4%

Home Over 4.5 Corners49.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners49.9%

Over 9.5 Corners45.6%

Home Most Corners43.4%

Away Most Corners43.4%

Under 8.5 Corners41.3%

Over 10.5 Corners33.4%

Over 11.5 Corners23.0%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards81.1%

Over 2.5 Cards73.6%

Under 4.5 Cards66.1%

Over 3.5 Cards53.3%

Under 3.5 Cards46.7%

Over 4.5 Cards33.9%

Under 2.5 Cards26.4%

Over 5.5 Cards18.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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