Brazil · Serie A

Bahia vs Sao Paulo

● LIVE 72' · 2:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Bahia 71.9% Draw 18.8% Sao Paulo 9.3%

Over 2.5 - 60% BTTS - 50%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 12.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Sao Paulo: 7 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.2%

Exact-score model probability

Bahia

D L W L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Sao Paulo

D W W L L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Bahia 0wins ·1 draws ·Sao Paulo 0wins

Bahia 2-2 Sao PauloMay 3, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bahia win71.9%

Draw18.8%

Sao Paulo win9.3%

Over 1.5 goals82.9%

Over 2.5 goals60.4%

Over 3.5 goals38.1%

Both teams to score49.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.5%

Home Over 0.5

90.5%

Under 5.5 Goals

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.6%

Draw No Bet - Home87.6%

Home or Away (12)83.2%

Home Win72.9%

Both Halves Over 0.562.0%

Goal in Both Halves62.0%

Draw or Away (X2)27.0%

Draw16.7%

Exactly 1 Goal13.7%

Draw No Bet - Away12.4%

Away Win10.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.5%

Under 5.5 Goals90.4%

Over 1.5 Goals81.8%

Under 4.5 Goals79.4%

Under 3.5 Goals62.0%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Over 2.5 Goals60.4%

1-3 Goals57.5%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.8%

3-4 Goals39.8%

Under 2.5 Goals39.6%

Over 3.5 Goals38.0%

4+ Goals38.0%

1-2 Goals35.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Exactly 2 Goals21.4%

Over 4.5 Goals20.6%

Under 1.5 Goals18.2%

Over 5.5 Goals9.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.5%

Exactly 0 Goals4.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.5%

Away Team to Score53.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)51.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)48.4%

Home Clean Sheet46.5%

Home Win to Nil42.1%

Away Clean Sheet9.4%

Away Win to Nil5.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.5%

Home Over 1.568.2%

Away Over 0.553.4%

Away Exactly 046.5%

Home Over 2.542.0%

Home 3+ Goals42.0%

Away Exactly 135.6%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 122.3%

Away Over 1.517.9%

Away Exactly 213.6%

Home Exactly 09.4%

Away Over 2.54.2%

Away 3+ Goals4.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)72.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)71.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away71.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)50.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away50.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)49.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home49.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.4%

Home to win by 3+28.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)27.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away27.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.0%

Home to win by 123.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.5%

Home to win by 221.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.4%

Away to win by 17.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.3%

Away to win by 22.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.550.3%

Home & No BTTS42.1%

BTTS & Over 2.540.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.6%

Home & BTTS30.8%

Home & Under 2.522.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.9%

Draw & Under 2.512.3%

Draw & BTTS12.3%

BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Away & Over 2.55.7%

Away & BTTS5.3%

Away & No BTTS5.0%

Away & Under 2.54.6%

Draw & Over 2.54.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.5%

HT Under 1.558.9%

HT Home Win53.8%

HT/FT Home/Home49.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.0%

HT Over 1.541.1%

HT Draw34.3%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Under 0.524.5%

Equal Goals Each Half23.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.2%

HT Both Teams Score19.1%

HT Away Win11.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.0%

HT/FT Away/Away5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners81.9%

Under 10.5 Corners72.6%

Away Most Corners63.1%

Under 9.5 Corners60.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners58.8%

Over 8.5 Corners52.2%

Under 8.5 Corners47.8%

Over 9.5 Corners39.1%

Home Over 4.5 Corners30.6%

Over 10.5 Corners27.4%

Home Most Corners24.8%

Over 11.5 Corners18.1%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards87.9%

Under 4.5 Cards75.6%

Over 2.5 Cards64.7%

Under 3.5 Cards57.3%

Over 3.5 Cards42.7%

Under 2.5 Cards35.3%

Over 4.5 Cards24.4%

Over 0.5 Red Cards13.3%

Over 5.5 Cards12.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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