Brazil · Serie A

Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Bahia 77.3% Draw 14.2% Vasco DA Gama 8.5%

Over 2.5 - 77% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 75%

⚠️ AIs disagree

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Bahia: 7 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

75%

Market agrees with this pick

Bahia

D D D W L D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Vasco DA Gama

D L L L W D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bahia win77.3%

Draw14.2%

Vasco DA Gama win8.5%

Over 1.5 goals92.1%

Over 2.5 goals77.3%

Over 3.5 goals58.1%

Both teams to score61.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.0%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.4%

Draw No Bet - Home89.4%

Home or Away (12)86.8%

Home Win77.6%

Both Halves Over 0.575.2%

Goal in Both Halves75.2%

Draw or Away (X2)22.0%

Draw12.8%

Draw No Bet - Away10.6%

Away Win9.2%

Exactly 1 Goal6.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals91.0%

Under 5.5 Goals77.6%

Over 2.5 Goals77.0%

Under 4.5 Goals61.7%

Over 3.5 Goals57.8%

4+ Goals57.8%

2-4 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals42.2%

1-3 Goals40.0%

3-4 Goals38.6%

Over 4.5 Goals38.3%

2-3 Goals33.2%

Under 2.5 Goals23.0%

Over 5.5 Goals22.4%

1-2 Goals20.9%

Exactly 3 Goals19.1%

Exactly 2 Goals14.0%

Under 1.5 Goals9.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score63.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.4%

Home Clean Sheet36.0%

Home Win to Nil34.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.7%

Away Win to Nil3.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.580.6%

Away Over 0.563.6%

Home Over 2.558.7%

Home 3+ Goals58.7%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Away Exactly 036.0%

Away Over 1.526.9%

Home Exactly 221.9%

Away Exactly 218.6%

Home Exactly 114.3%

Away Over 2.58.3%

Away 3+ Goals8.3%

Home Exactly 04.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)77.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)58.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home58.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)40.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away40.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.8%

Home to win by 3+38.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)22.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away22.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.1%

Home to win by 220.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 118.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 16.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 22.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.564.5%

BTTS & Over 2.555.3%

Home & BTTS43.3%

Home & No BTTS34.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.4%

Home & Under 2.513.1%

Draw & BTTS11.1%

Draw & Under 2.56.9%

Away & Over 2.56.6%

Away & BTTS6.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.8%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Away & No BTTS3.0%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.1%

HT Home Win60.1%

HT/FT Home/Home56.0%

HT Over 1.554.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Under 1.545.2%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw27.7%

HT Both Teams Score27.5%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.0%

HT Under 0.515.9%

HT Away Win12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Away/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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