Spain · La Liga

Barcelona vs Alaves

Kick-off 21:00 · Sat, Oct 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Barcelona 83.4% Draw 11.0% Alaves 5.2%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

90%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Barcelona: 12 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Barcelona

L L W W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 18:10 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 1.67

Alaves

D L L D L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 4:8 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Barcelona 4wins ·0 draws ·Alaves 1wins

Barcelona 0-1 AlavesMay 13, 2026

Barcelona 3-1 AlavesNov 29, 2025

Barcelona 1-0 AlavesFeb 2, 2025

Barcelona 3-0 AlavesOct 6, 2024

Barcelona 3-1 AlavesFeb 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Barcelona win83.4%

Draw11.0%

Alaves win5.2%

Over 1.5 goals89.6%

Over 2.5 goals73.6%

Over 3.5 goals53.4%

Both teams to score74.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

Home or Draw (1X)

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home91.5%

Home or Draw (1X)91.2%

Home or Away (12)88.6%

Both Halves Over 0.581.9%

Goal in Both Halves81.9%

Home Win81.0%

Draw or Away (X2)17.8%

Draw10.2%

Draw No Bet - Away8.5%

Away Win7.5%

Exactly 1 Goal4.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals93.9%

Over 2.5 Goals84.2%

Over 3.5 Goals68.9%

4+ Goals68.9%

Under 5.5 Goals66.8%

Over 4.5 Goals50.6%

Under 4.5 Goals49.4%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

2-4 Goals43.3%

3-4 Goals33.6%

Over 5.5 Goals33.2%

Under 3.5 Goals31.1%

1-3 Goals29.0%

2-3 Goals25.0%

Under 2.5 Goals15.8%

Exactly 3 Goals15.3%

1-2 Goals13.7%

Exactly 2 Goals9.6%

Under 1.5 Goals6.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score67.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.5%

Home Clean Sheet31.4%

Home Win to Nil30.6%

Away Clean Sheet2.7%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.5%

Home Over 2.568.9%

Home 3+ Goals68.9%

Away Over 0.567.3%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Away Over 1.531.4%

Away Exactly 031.4%

Away Exactly 220.6%

Home Exactly 217.5%

Away Over 2.510.7%

Away 3+ Goals10.7%

Home Exactly 19.7%

Home Exactly 02.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)82.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away82.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)81.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)69.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away69.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)65.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home65.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)52.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away52.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)46.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home46.7%

Home to win by 3+46.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)33.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away33.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.6%

Home to win by 218.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away17.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 115.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.0%

Away to win by 15.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.9%

Away to win by 21.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.4%

BTTS & Over 2.562.0%

Home & BTTS50.4%

Home & No BTTS30.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.522.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.0%

Draw & BTTS9.4%

Home & Under 2.58.6%

Away & Over 2.56.0%

Draw & Over 2.55.9%

Away & BTTS5.7%

Draw & Under 2.54.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.3%

HT Home Win64.9%

HT Over 1.563.2%

HT/FT Home/Home61.2%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT Under 1.536.8%

HT Both Teams Score32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw23.8%

Equal Goals Each Half18.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.6%

HT Under 0.511.7%

HT Away Win11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Away/Away4.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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