Spain · La Liga

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano

Kick-off 20:30 · Mon, Aug 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

Barcelona 78.7% Draw 14.0% Rayo Vallecano 7.2%

Over 2.5 - 62% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 16.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Barcelona: 12 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

16.1%

Exact-score model probability

Barcelona

W W L W L W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 13:5 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Rayo Vallecano

D L L W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Barcelona 4wins ·1 draws ·Rayo Vallecano 0wins

Barcelona 1-0 Rayo VallecanoMar 22, 2026

Barcelona 1-1 Rayo VallecanoAug 31, 2025

Barcelona 1-0 Rayo VallecanoFeb 17, 2025

Barcelona 2-1 Rayo VallecanoAug 27, 2024

Barcelona 3-0 Rayo VallecanoMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Barcelona win78.7%

Draw14.0%

Rayo Vallecano win7.2%

Over 1.5 goals82.5%

Over 2.5 goals61.6%

Over 3.5 goals39.3%

Both teams to score41.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.6%

Over 0.5 Goals

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.5%

Draw No Bet - Home86.7%

Home or Away (12)79.3%

Home Win68.8%

Both Halves Over 0.549.6%

Goal in Both Halves49.6%

Draw or Away (X2)31.2%

Exactly 1 Goal21.1%

Draw20.7%

Draw No Bet - Away13.3%

Away Win10.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.1%

Over 0.5 Goals91.4%

Under 4.5 Goals89.7%

Under 3.5 Goals76.7%

Over 1.5 Goals70.4%

1-3 Goals68.1%

2-4 Goals60.1%

Under 2.5 Goals55.5%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

2-3 Goals47.0%

1-2 Goals46.9%

Over 2.5 Goals44.5%

3-4 Goals34.2%

Under 1.5 Goals29.6%

Exactly 2 Goals25.9%

Over 3.5 Goals23.3%

4+ Goals23.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Over 4.5 Goals10.3%

Under 0.5 Goals8.6%

Exactly 0 Goals8.6%

Over 5.5 Goals3.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)62.9%

Home Clean Sheet56.3%

Home Win to Nil47.7%

Away Team to Score43.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)37.1%

Away Clean Sheet15.2%

Away Win to Nil6.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.8%

Away Exactly 056.3%

Home Over 1.556.1%

Away Over 0.543.7%

Away Exactly 132.4%

Home Over 2.529.1%

Home 3+ Goals29.1%

Home Exactly 128.7%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 015.2%

Away Over 1.511.4%

Away Exactly 29.3%

Away Over 2.52.1%

Away 3+ Goals2.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)42.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home42.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)31.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away31.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw26.6%

Home to win by 126.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.4%

Home to win by 221.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.8%

Home to win by 3+20.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.1%

Away to win by 18.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 22.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS47.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.546.2%

Home & Over 2.537.5%

Home & Under 2.531.3%

BTTS & Over 2.527.8%

Home & BTTS21.1%

Draw & Under 2.517.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.7%

Draw & BTTS12.1%

BTTS & Under 2.59.3%

Away & No BTTS6.7%

Away & Under 2.56.3%

Away & Over 2.54.2%

Away & BTTS3.9%

Draw & Over 2.52.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.569.7%

HT Over 0.566.9%

HT Home Win48.4%

HT/FT Home/Home44.7%

2nd Half More Goals42.4%

HT Draw40.8%

HT Under 0.533.1%

1st Half More Goals30.6%

HT Over 1.530.3%

Equal Goals Each Half27.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home21.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.3%

HT Both Teams Score13.0%

HT Away Win10.8%

HT/FT Away/Away5.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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