Turkey · Süper Lig

Başakşehir vs Galatasaray

Kick-off 18:00 · Fri, Sep 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

88% confidence

Başakşehir 88.4% Draw 7.3% Galatasaray 4.3%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Başakşehir: 10 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.25 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Başakşehir

W L D W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Galatasaray

D L W L

Form 1-1-2 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.75 Conceded/game 2.25

📈 Probability Breakdown

Başakşehir win88.4%

Draw7.3%

Galatasaray win4.3%

Over 1.5 goals97.8%

Over 2.5 goals91.8%

Over 3.5 goals80.9%

Both teams to score68.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.1%

Home or Draw (1X)91.6%

Home or Away (12)89.5%

Both Halves Over 0.588.1%

Goal in Both Halves88.1%

Home Win85.1%

Draw or Away (X2)10.9%

Draw6.5%

Draw No Bet - Away4.9%

Away Win4.3%

Exactly 1 Goal2.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals88.1%

Over 3.5 Goals77.6%

4+ Goals77.6%

Over 4.5 Goals62.8%

Under 5.5 Goals54.1%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals45.9%

Under 4.5 Goals37.2%

2-4 Goals30.9%

3-4 Goals25.4%

Under 3.5 Goals22.4%

1-3 Goals18.0%

2-3 Goals16.0%

Under 2.5 Goals11.9%

Exactly 3 Goals10.5%

1-2 Goals7.5%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Exactly 2 Goals5.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score66.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.7%

Home Clean Sheet29.9%

Home Win to Nil29.5%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.566.1%

Away Exactly 134.9%

Away Over 1.531.2%

Away Exactly 029.9%

Away Exactly 220.3%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.510.9%

Away 3+ Goals10.9%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)85.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)82.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)73.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home73.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)70.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away70.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)58.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home58.4%

Home to win by 3+58.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)54.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away54.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)41.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home41.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)37.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away37.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)25.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home25.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)22.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away22.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 215.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)13.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home13.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.3%

Home to win by 111.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away10.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.9%

Away to win by 12.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.0%

Away to win by 21.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.580.1%

BTTS & Over 2.563.5%

Home & BTTS55.6%

Home & No BTTS29.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.6%

Draw & BTTS6.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Home & Under 2.55.1%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Away & Over 2.53.7%

Away & BTTS3.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.2%

HT Home Win72.9%

HT Over 1.572.3%

HT/FT Home/Home70.4%

2nd Half More Goals50.7%

HT Both Teams Score35.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.7%

HT Draw18.6%

Equal Goals Each Half16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win8.5%

HT Under 0.57.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Away/Away2.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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