Turkey · Süper Lig

Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa

Kick-off 19:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

74% confidence

Başakşehir 74.1% Draw 17.0% Kasımpaşa 8.9%

Over 2.5 - 66% BTTS - 53%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 10.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Başakşehir: 10 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.75 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.9%

Exact-score model probability

Başakşehir

W L D W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Kasımpaşa

D W L D

Form 1-2-1 Goals 5:5 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 1.25

📈 Probability Breakdown

Başakşehir win74.1%

Draw17.0%

Kasımpaşa win8.9%

Over 1.5 goals86.4%

Over 2.5 goals66.4%

Over 3.5 goals44.5%

Both teams to score53.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.1%

Draw No Bet - Home88.5%

Home or Away (12)84.7%

Home Win74.9%

Both Halves Over 0.566.6%

Goal in Both Halves66.6%

Draw or Away (X2)24.9%

Draw15.2%

Draw No Bet - Away11.5%

Exactly 1 Goal11.2%

Away Win9.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.6%

Under 5.5 Goals86.9%

Over 1.5 Goals85.4%

Under 4.5 Goals74.2%

Over 2.5 Goals66.3%

2-4 Goals59.6%

Under 3.5 Goals55.5%

1-3 Goals52.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals44.5%

4+ Goals44.5%

2-3 Goals40.9%

3-4 Goals40.5%

Under 2.5 Goals33.7%

1-2 Goals30.3%

Over 4.5 Goals25.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.8%

Exactly 2 Goals19.1%

Under 1.5 Goals14.6%

Over 5.5 Goals13.1%

Under 0.5 Goals3.4%

Exactly 0 Goals3.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.3%

Away Team to Score56.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.8%

Home Clean Sheet43.4%

Home Win to Nil40.1%

Away Clean Sheet7.5%

Away Win to Nil4.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.3%

Home Over 1.572.9%

Away Over 0.556.4%

Home Over 2.547.7%

Home 3+ Goals47.7%

Away Exactly 043.4%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Away Over 1.520.3%

Home Exactly 119.5%

Away Exactly 215.1%

Home Exactly 07.5%

Away Over 2.55.2%

Away 3+ Goals5.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)83.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away83.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)67.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away67.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)53.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home53.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)46.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away46.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.2%

Home to win by 3+32.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.5%

Home to win by 121.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.3%

Home to win by 221.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.9%

Away to win by 16.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 22.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.555.5%

BTTS & Over 2.545.2%

Home & No BTTS40.1%

Home & BTTS34.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.1%

Home & Under 2.519.4%

Draw & BTTS11.9%

Draw & Under 2.510.3%

BTTS & Under 2.57.0%

Away & Over 2.55.9%

Away & BTTS5.5%

Draw & Over 2.54.8%

Away & No BTTS4.2%

Away & Under 2.53.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.5%

HT Home Win56.2%

HT Under 1.554.5%

HT/FT Home/Home52.2%

2nd Half More Goals45.9%

HT Over 1.545.5%

HT Draw31.9%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

Equal Goals Each Half22.2%

HT Under 0.521.5%

HT Both Teams Score21.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.5%

HT Away Win11.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.6%

HT/FT Away/Away5.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions