Turkey · Süper Lig

Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor

Kick-off 17:00 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

65% confidence

Başakşehir 64.5% Draw 26.3% Kocaelispor 9.2%

Over 2.5 - 34% BTTS - 31%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 20.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Başakşehir: 7 points versus 1 across the last 5 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

20.2%

Exact-score model probability

Başakşehir

L D W W L

Form 2-1-2 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 1.4

Kocaelispor

L L D

Form 0-1-2 Goals 1:3 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Başakşehir win64.5%

Draw26.3%

Kocaelispor win9.2%

Over 1.5 goals62.7%

Over 2.5 goals34.4%

Over 3.5 goals15.7%

Both teams to score31.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

89.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

89.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.6%

Draw No Bet - Home86.4%

Home or Away (12)76.1%

Home Win65.7%

Both Halves Over 0.541.4%

Goal in Both Halves41.4%

Draw or Away (X2)34.3%

Exactly 1 Goal26.0%

Draw23.9%

Draw No Bet - Away13.6%

Away Win10.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.1%

Under 4.5 Goals94.0%

Over 0.5 Goals87.5%

Under 3.5 Goals84.3%

1-3 Goals71.8%

Under 2.5 Goals65.6%

Over 1.5 Goals61.4%

2-4 Goals55.5%

1-2 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even50.8%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

2-3 Goals45.7%

Under 1.5 Goals38.6%

Over 2.5 Goals34.4%

3-4 Goals28.4%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals18.7%

Over 3.5 Goals15.7%

4+ Goals15.7%

Under 0.5 Goals12.5%

Exactly 0 Goals12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals6.0%

Over 5.5 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score80.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)70.1%

Home Clean Sheet62.7%

Home Win to Nil50.2%

Away Team to Score37.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)29.9%

Away Clean Sheet20.0%

Away Win to Nil7.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.580.0%

Away Exactly 062.7%

Home Over 1.547.8%

Away Over 0.537.3%

Home Exactly 132.2%

Away Exactly 129.3%

Home Exactly 225.9%

Home Over 2.521.9%

Home 3+ Goals21.9%

Home Exactly 020.0%

Away Over 1.58.0%

Away Exactly 26.8%

Away Over 2.51.2%

Away 3+ Goals1.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)65.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)63.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away63.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)34.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away34.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw28.8%

Home to win by 128.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 220.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.3%

Home to win by 3+16.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.3%

Away to win by 18.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.7%

Away to win by 21.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away to win by 3+0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.556.2%

Home & No BTTS50.2%

Home & Under 2.536.4%

Home & Over 2.529.3%

Draw & Under 2.522.0%

BTTS & Over 2.520.4%

Home & BTTS15.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.0%

Draw & BTTS11.3%

BTTS & Under 2.59.4%

Away & No BTTS7.5%

Away & Under 2.57.2%

Away & Over 2.53.2%

Away & BTTS2.9%

Draw & Over 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.576.0%

HT Over 0.560.7%

HT Draw45.5%

HT Home Win44.6%

HT/FT Home/Home41.3%

2nd Half More Goals40.4%

HT Under 0.539.3%

Equal Goals Each Half29.9%

1st Half More Goals29.7%

HT Over 1.524.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home22.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.0%

HT Away Win9.9%

HT Both Teams Score9.8%

HT/FT Away/Away5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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