UEFA Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

71% confidence

Bayer Leverkusen 70.7% Draw 12.4% Celje 16.9%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

91%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The 1X2 model's strongest outcome is Bayer Leverkusen win at 70.7%.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bayer Leverkusen: 8 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Bayer Leverkusen win

70.7%

1X2 model probability

Draw

12.4%

1X2 model probability

Celje win

16.9%

1X2 model probability

Bayer Leverkusen

D W L D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 14:10 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Celje

D D W L D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bayer Leverkusen win70.7%

Draw12.4%

Celje win16.9%

Over 1.5 goals99.4%

Over 2.5 goals96.8%

Over 3.5 goals91.3%

Both teams to score90.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Over 1.5

89.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

Away Team to Score

87.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.593.6%

Goal in Both Halves93.6%

Home or Away (12)84.2%

Draw No Bet - Home80.6%

Home or Draw (1X)79.6%

Home Win67.9%

Draw or Away (X2)28.0%

Draw No Bet - Away19.4%

Away Win16.3%

Draw11.6%

Exactly 1 Goal0.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals92.8%

Over 3.5 Goals87.5%

4+ Goals87.5%

Over 4.5 Goals78.3%

Over 5.5 Goals65.4%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Total Goals Even47.9%

Under 5.5 Goals34.6%

Under 4.5 Goals21.7%

2-4 Goals16.9%

3-4 Goals14.6%

Under 3.5 Goals12.5%

1-3 Goals8.3%

2-3 Goals7.6%

Under 2.5 Goals7.2%

Exactly 3 Goals5.3%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals2.9%

Exactly 2 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score87.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.3%

Home Clean Sheet8.1%

Home Win to Nil8.0%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.587.7%

Home Over 2.578.5%

Home 3+ Goals78.5%

Away Over 1.567.6%

Away Over 2.542.9%

Away 3+ Goals42.9%

Away Exactly 224.8%

Away Exactly 120.1%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Exactly 08.1%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away82.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)71.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away71.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)57.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away57.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)53.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home53.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)42.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away42.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.1%

Home to win by 3+38.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home24.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.3%

Home to win by 215.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 114.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.9%

Away to win by 17.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 24.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.8%

Away to win by 3+3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.585.7%

Home & Over 2.566.5%

Home & BTTS59.9%

Away & Over 2.515.8%

Away & BTTS15.3%

Draw & BTTS11.6%

Draw & Over 2.510.5%

Home & No BTTS8.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.0%

Home & Under 2.51.4%

Draw & Under 2.51.1%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.0%

Away & Under 2.50.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.595.6%

HT Over 1.582.0%

HT Home Win58.5%

HT Both Teams Score58.2%

2nd Half More Goals52.7%

HT/FT Home/Home52.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw21.2%

HT Away Win20.3%

HT Under 1.518.0%

Equal Goals Each Half14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.1%

HT/FT Away/Away9.8%

HT/FT Away/Home6.6%

HT Under 0.54.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions