UEFA Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille

Kick-off 21:00 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Bayer Leverkusen 42.8% Draw 16.9% Marseille 40.3%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 92%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

92%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-3 at 5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Marseille: 10 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Bayer Leverkusen

L L W W W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:13 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.17

Marseille

W W W W L L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 14:8 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bayer Leverkusen win42.8%

Draw16.9%

Marseille win40.3%

Over 1.5 goals98.9%

Over 2.5 goals94.9%

Over 3.5 goals87.1%

Both teams to score91.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

92.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.1%

Goal in Both Halves91.1%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Home or Draw (1X)58.9%

Draw or Away (X2)56.3%

Draw No Bet - Home51.5%

Draw No Bet - Away48.5%

Home Win42.6%

Away Win40.1%

Draw16.3%

Exactly 1 Goal1.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals97.6%

Over 2.5 Goals93.9%

Over 3.5 Goals86.2%

4+ Goals86.2%

Over 4.5 Goals74.1%

Over 5.5 Goals58.9%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Under 5.5 Goals41.1%

Under 4.5 Goals25.9%

2-4 Goals23.5%

3-4 Goals19.8%

Under 3.5 Goals13.8%

1-3 Goals12.6%

2-3 Goals11.4%

Exactly 3 Goals7.7%

Under 2.5 Goals6.1%

1-2 Goals4.9%

Exactly 2 Goals3.7%

Under 1.5 Goals2.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score94.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)90.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)9.4%

Home Clean Sheet4.5%

Home Win to Nil4.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.1%

Away Win to Nil3.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Away Over 0.594.5%

Home Over 1.581.7%

Away Over 1.580.6%

Home Over 2.560.9%

Home 3+ Goals60.9%

Away Over 2.559.1%

Away 3+ Goals59.1%

Away Exactly 221.5%

Home Exactly 220.9%

Away Exactly 113.9%

Home Exactly 113.1%

Away Exactly 04.5%

Home Exactly 04.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)58.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home58.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)25.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away25.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.7%

Home to win by 3+15.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 115.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.7%

Away to win by 114.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away14.2%

Away to win by 3+14.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.8%

Home to win by 211.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.2%

Away to win by 211.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.588.7%

Home & Over 2.541.1%

Away & Over 2.538.6%

Home & BTTS38.4%

Away & BTTS36.1%

Draw & BTTS16.1%

Draw & Over 2.514.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.2%

Home & No BTTS4.3%

Away & No BTTS3.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Draw & Under 2.52.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Home & Under 2.51.5%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.1%

HT Over 1.577.4%

HT Both Teams Score57.3%

2nd Half More Goals51.8%

HT Home Win38.3%

HT Away Win36.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Home/Home28.0%

HT/FT Away/Away26.1%

HT Draw25.1%

HT Under 1.522.6%

Equal Goals Each Half15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.5%

HT Under 0.55.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away5.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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