Germany · Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

Kick-off 14:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Bayer Leverkusen 53.0% Draw 22.8% RB Leipzig 24.1%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.3%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to RB Leipzig: 8 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.3%

Exact-score model probability

Bayer Leverkusen

D W L D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 14:10 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.67

RB Leipzig

W L L W L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 13:12 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Bayer Leverkusen 3wins ·1 draws ·RB Leipzig 1wins

Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB LeipzigMay 2, 2026

Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 RB LeipzigDec 20, 2025

Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 RB LeipzigJan 25, 2025

Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 RB LeipzigAug 31, 2024

Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 RB LeipzigJan 20, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bayer Leverkusen win53.0%

Draw22.8%

RB Leipzig win24.1%

Over 1.5 goals86.1%

Over 2.5 goals97.0%

Over 3.5 goals44.1%

Both teams to score91.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.7%

Goal in Both Halves

90.7%

Home Over 1.5

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.7%

Goal in Both Halves90.7%

Home or Away (12)84.6%

Home or Draw (1X)79.0%

Draw No Bet - Home77.5%

Home Win65.6%

Draw or Away (X2)32.4%

Draw No Bet - Away22.5%

Away Win19.0%

Draw13.4%

Exactly 1 Goal1.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals96.6%

Over 2.5 Goals92.7%

Over 3.5 Goals84.6%

4+ Goals84.6%

Over 4.5 Goals72.1%

Over 5.5 Goals56.6%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

Total Goals Even49.0%

Under 5.5 Goals43.4%

Under 4.5 Goals27.9%

2-4 Goals24.5%

3-4 Goals20.6%

Under 3.5 Goals15.4%

1-3 Goals13.2%

2-3 Goals12.0%

Exactly 3 Goals8.1%

Under 2.5 Goals7.3%

1-2 Goals5.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.9%

Under 1.5 Goals3.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score88.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.8%

Home Clean Sheet10.0%

Home Win to Nil9.8%

Away Clean Sheet2.0%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.3%

Away Over 0.588.0%

Home Over 2.573.0%

Home 3+ Goals73.0%

Away Over 1.565.1%

Away Over 2.539.0%

Away 3+ Goals39.0%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Away Exactly 122.9%

Home Exactly 215.3%

Away Exactly 010.0%

Home Exactly 17.8%

Home Exactly 02.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)65.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)64.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away64.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)49.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home49.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)48.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away48.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.6%

Home to win by 3+33.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home20.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 116.0%

Home to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.3%

Away to win by 19.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 25.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.3%

Away to win by 3+4.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.584.4%

Home & Over 2.563.2%

Home & BTTS55.8%

Away & Over 2.518.1%

Away & BTTS17.3%

Draw & BTTS13.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.4%

Home & No BTTS9.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Home & Under 2.52.4%

Draw & Under 2.52.0%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & Under 2.51.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.8%

HT Over 1.576.7%

HT Home Win54.6%

HT Both Teams Score53.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.6%

HT/FT Home/Home47.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw23.4%

HT Under 1.523.3%

HT Away Win21.9%

Equal Goals Each Half15.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.6%

HT/FT Away/Away11.4%

HT Under 0.56.2%

HT/FT Away/Home6.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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