Germany · Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg

Kick-off 14:30 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

64% confidence

Bayer Leverkusen 64.2% Draw 19.4% SC Freiburg 16.3%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

87%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.8%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to SC Freiburg: 11 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.8%

Exact-score model probability

Bayer Leverkusen

W W D W L D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 15:9 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.5

SC Freiburg

W D W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 17:5 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Bayer Leverkusen 3wins ·2 draws ·SC Freiburg 0wins

Bayer Leverkusen 3-3 SC FreiburgMar 7, 2026

Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 SC FreiburgOct 26, 2025

Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 SC FreiburgMay 4, 2025

Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 SC FreiburgDec 21, 2024

Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 SC FreiburgMar 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bayer Leverkusen win64.2%

Draw19.4%

SC Freiburg win16.3%

Over 1.5 goals87.2%

Over 2.5 goals95.6%

Over 3.5 goals46.9%

Both teams to score91.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.1%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.5%

Goal in Both Halves88.5%

Home or Away (12)84.0%

Home or Draw (1X)76.4%

Draw No Bet - Home73.1%

Home Win61.4%

Draw or Away (X2)37.6%

Draw No Bet - Away26.9%

Away Win22.6%

Draw15.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals96.8%

Over 2.5 Goals91.5%

Over 3.5 Goals81.3%

4+ Goals81.3%

Over 4.5 Goals66.7%

Over 5.5 Goals50.0%

Under 5.5 Goals50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Under 4.5 Goals33.3%

2-4 Goals30.1%

3-4 Goals24.8%

Under 3.5 Goals18.7%

1-3 Goals17.4%

2-3 Goals15.5%

Exactly 3 Goals10.2%

Under 2.5 Goals8.5%

1-2 Goals7.2%

Exactly 2 Goals5.3%

Under 1.5 Goals3.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score88.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.4%

Home Clean Sheet10.6%

Home Win to Nil10.3%

Away Clean Sheet3.0%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Away Over 0.588.3%

Home Over 1.585.4%

Home Over 2.566.9%

Home 3+ Goals66.9%

Away Over 1.564.6%

Away Over 2.538.1%

Away 3+ Goals38.1%

Away Exactly 226.5%

Away Exactly 123.7%

Home Exactly 218.5%

Home Exactly 110.6%

Away Exactly 010.6%

Home Exactly 03.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)70.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away70.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)44.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home44.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.5%

Home to win by 3+28.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)22.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.0%

Home to win by 117.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.8%

Away to win by 110.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.5%

Away to win by 26.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.2%

Away to win by 3+5.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.1%

Home & Over 2.558.3%

Home & BTTS51.1%

Away & Over 2.521.0%

Away & BTTS19.9%

Draw & BTTS14.7%

Draw & Over 2.512.1%

Home & No BTTS10.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.0%

Home & Under 2.53.1%

Draw & Under 2.52.9%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.4%

HT Over 1.572.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.9%

HT Home Win50.6%

HT Both Teams Score50.2%

HT/FT Home/Home43.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.2%

HT Draw25.2%

HT Away Win24.1%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT/FT Away/Away13.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.5%

HT Under 0.57.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.1%

HT/FT Away/Home5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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