Germany · Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart

Full time · 2:4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Bayer Leverkusen 56.0% Draw 21.1% VfB Stuttgart 22.9%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 80%

✓ Pick was correct (2:4)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bayer Leverkusen: 13 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.4%

Exact-score model probability

Bayer Leverkusen

L W W W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 14:9 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.5

VfB Stuttgart

L D L W W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Bayer Leverkusen 1wins ·2 draws ·VfB Stuttgart 2wins

Bayer Leverkusen 1-3 VfB StuttgartMay 9, 2026

Bayer Leverkusen 1-4 VfB StuttgartJan 10, 2026

Bayer Leverkusen 4-3 VfB StuttgartMar 16, 2025

Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 VfB StuttgartNov 1, 2024

Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 VfB StuttgartApr 27, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bayer Leverkusen win56.0%

Draw21.1%

VfB Stuttgart win22.9%

Over 1.5 goals87.7%

Over 2.5 goals93.8%

Over 3.5 goals48.2%

Both teams to score80.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.8%

HT Over 0.5

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.3%

Goal in Both Halves85.3%

Home or Away (12)84.6%

Home or Draw (1X)81.2%

Draw No Bet - Home78.7%

Home Win66.6%

Draw or Away (X2)32.6%

Draw No Bet - Away21.3%

Away Win18.0%

Draw14.6%

Exactly 1 Goal2.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals88.4%

Over 3.5 Goals75.6%

4+ Goals75.6%

Over 4.5 Goals58.8%

Under 5.5 Goals58.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Over 5.5 Goals41.3%

Under 4.5 Goals41.2%

2-4 Goals37.0%

3-4 Goals29.6%

Under 3.5 Goals24.4%

1-3 Goals23.1%

2-3 Goals20.2%

Exactly 3 Goals12.9%

Under 2.5 Goals11.6%

1-2 Goals10.2%

Exactly 2 Goals7.4%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score83.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.5%

Home Clean Sheet15.8%

Home Win to Nil15.3%

Away Clean Sheet3.4%

Away Win to Nil2.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.584.2%

Away Over 0.583.4%

Home Over 2.564.8%

Home 3+ Goals64.8%

Away Over 1.554.4%

Away Exactly 129.0%

Away Over 2.527.7%

Away 3+ Goals27.7%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 219.5%

Away Exactly 015.8%

Home Exactly 111.5%

Home Exactly 03.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)81.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away81.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)67.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away67.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)66.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)50.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away50.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)49.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home49.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home31.8%

Home to win by 3+31.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home18.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 217.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.6%

Away to win by 19.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.1%

Away to win by 25.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.3%

Away to win by 3+3.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.1%

Home & Over 2.561.7%

Home & BTTS51.3%

Away & Over 2.516.1%

Home & No BTTS15.3%

Away & BTTS15.2%

Draw & BTTS14.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.3%

Draw & Over 2.510.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.4%

Home & Under 2.54.9%

Draw & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Away & No BTTS2.9%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.4%

HT Over 1.568.0%

HT Home Win53.6%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

HT/FT Home/Home47.1%

HT Both Teams Score43.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.532.0%

HT Draw25.9%

HT Away Win20.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.8%

HT/FT Away/Away10.6%

HT Under 0.59.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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