Germany · Bundesliga

Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund

Full time · 2:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

Bayern München 68.5% Draw 17.6% Borussia Dortmund 13.8%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 72%

✓ Pick was correct (2:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bayern München: 12 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Bayern München

W D W D D W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 23:9 Scored/game 3.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Borussia Dortmund

W W D L D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 6:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 4

Bayern München 2wins ·2 draws ·Borussia Dortmund 0wins

Bayern München 3-2 Borussia DortmundFeb 28, 2026

Bayern München 2-1 Borussia DortmundOct 18, 2025

Bayern München 2-2 Borussia DortmundApr 12, 2025

Bayern München 1-1 Borussia DortmundNov 30, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bayern München win68.5%

Draw17.6%

Borussia Dortmund win13.8%

Over 1.5 goals87.9%

Over 2.5 goals90.1%

Over 3.5 goals48.9%

Both teams to score72.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.2%

HT Over 0.5

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)87.1%

Home or Away (12)86.2%

Draw No Bet - Home85.9%

Both Halves Over 0.581.5%

Goal in Both Halves81.5%

Home Win74.0%

Draw or Away (X2)25.2%

Draw No Bet - Away14.1%

Draw13.1%

Away Win12.2%

Exactly 1 Goal4.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals94.2%

Over 2.5 Goals84.2%

Over 3.5 Goals68.6%

4+ Goals68.6%

Under 5.5 Goals67.3%

Over 4.5 Goals50.1%

Under 4.5 Goals49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

2-4 Goals44.0%

3-4 Goals34.1%

Over 5.5 Goals32.7%

Under 3.5 Goals31.4%

1-3 Goals29.8%

2-3 Goals25.6%

Under 2.5 Goals15.8%

Exactly 3 Goals15.6%

1-2 Goals14.2%

Exactly 2 Goals9.9%

Under 1.5 Goals5.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.7%

Away Team to Score74.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.2%

Home Clean Sheet24.8%

Home Win to Nil23.9%

Away Clean Sheet3.6%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.7%

Home Over 1.583.8%

Away Over 0.574.4%

Home Over 2.563.9%

Home 3+ Goals63.9%

Away Over 1.540.0%

Away Exactly 134.4%

Away Exactly 024.8%

Away Exactly 223.8%

Home Exactly 219.8%

Away Over 2.516.2%

Away 3+ Goals16.2%

Home Exactly 111.9%

Home Exactly 03.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)56.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home56.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)43.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away43.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)37.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home37.6%

Home to win by 3+37.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 117.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.4%

Away to win by 17.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.2%

Away to win by 23.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.6%

Away to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.567.6%

Home & Over 2.566.1%

Home & BTTS50.1%

Home & No BTTS23.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.6%

Draw & BTTS12.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.9%

Away & Over 2.510.1%

Away & BTTS9.5%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

Home & Under 2.57.9%

Draw & Under 2.55.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.0%

HT Over 1.562.6%

HT Home Win58.5%

HT/FT Home/Home53.5%

2nd Half More Goals49.1%

HT Under 1.537.4%

HT Both Teams Score36.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw26.1%

Equal Goals Each Half18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.4%

HT Away Win15.4%

HT Under 0.512.0%

HT/FT Away/Away6.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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