Germany · Bundesliga

Bayern München vs Union Berlin

Kick-off 19:30 · Fri, Sep 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

89% confidence

Bayern München 89.3% Draw 6.1% Union Berlin 2.3%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

95%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Bayern München: 16 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Bayern München

W W D W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 18:3 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 0.5

Union Berlin

L L D W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 13:13 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 4

Bayern München 2wins ·2 draws ·Union Berlin 0wins

Bayern München 4-0 Union BerlinMar 21, 2026

Bayern München 2-2 Union BerlinNov 8, 2025

Bayern München 1-1 Union BerlinMar 15, 2025

Bayern München 3-0 Union BerlinNov 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bayern München win89.3%

Draw6.1%

Union Berlin win2.3%

Over 1.5 goals92.9%

Over 2.5 goals94.8%

Over 3.5 goals67.1%

Both teams to score82.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

HT Over 0.5

90.5%

Draw No Bet - Home

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home89.0%

Home or Draw (1X)88.8%

Home or Away (12)87.6%

Both Halves Over 0.585.4%

Goal in Both Halves85.4%

Home Win78.0%

Draw or Away (X2)20.4%

Draw No Bet - Away11.0%

Draw10.8%

Away Win9.6%

Exactly 1 Goal2.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals87.8%

Over 3.5 Goals75.0%

4+ Goals75.0%

Under 5.5 Goals59.2%

Over 4.5 Goals58.3%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Total Goals Even49.2%

Under 4.5 Goals41.7%

Over 5.5 Goals40.8%

2-4 Goals36.8%

3-4 Goals29.4%

Under 3.5 Goals25.0%

1-3 Goals22.9%

2-3 Goals20.1%

Exactly 3 Goals12.8%

Under 2.5 Goals12.2%

1-2 Goals10.1%

Exactly 2 Goals7.3%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score74.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.8%

Home Clean Sheet23.5%

Home Win to Nil23.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.2%

Away Win to Nil1.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.7%

Away Over 0.574.9%

Home Over 2.571.5%

Home 3+ Goals71.5%

Away Over 1.541.2%

Away Exactly 133.7%

Away Exactly 224.1%

Away Exactly 023.5%

Away Over 2.517.1%

Away 3+ Goals17.1%

Home Exactly 216.2%

Home Exactly 18.5%

Home Exactly 02.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)83.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away83.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)70.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away70.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)53.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away53.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.6%

Home to win by 3+44.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)28.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home28.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away20.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 217.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 115.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.9%

Away to win by 15.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.5%

Away to win by 22.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.2%

Away to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.1%

BTTS & Over 2.570.3%

Home & BTTS55.0%

Home & No BTTS23.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.5%

Draw & BTTS10.3%

Away & Over 2.58.3%

Away & BTTS7.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.7%

Draw & Over 2.57.4%

Home & Under 2.55.9%

Draw & Under 2.53.4%

BTTS & Under 2.52.9%

Away & No BTTS1.7%

Away & Under 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.5%

HT Over 1.568.1%

HT Home Win63.2%

HT/FT Home/Home58.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

HT Both Teams Score38.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.9%

HT Draw23.2%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.7%

HT Away Win13.6%

HT Under 0.59.5%

HT/FT Away/Away5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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