UEFA Europa Conference League

Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca

Kick-off 18:30 · Thu, Jul 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

Beitar Jerusalem 57.0% Draw 34.4% AEK Larnaca 8.6%

Over 2.5 - 18% BTTS - 19%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 64%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 27%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

27%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

64%

Market does not fully agree

Beitar Jerusalem

Form 1-0-0 Goals 1:0 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0

AEK Larnaca

Form 0-0-1 Goals 0:1 Scored/game 0 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Beitar Jerusalem 1wins ·0 draws ·AEK Larnaca 0wins

Beitar Jerusalem 1-0 AEK LarnacaJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Beitar Jerusalem win57.0%

Draw34.4%

AEK Larnaca win8.6%

Over 1.5 goals43.6%

Over 2.5 goals17.9%

Over 3.5 goals6.0%

Both teams to score18.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.2%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.4%

Draw No Bet - Home85.8%

Home or Away (12)67.7%

Home Win58.1%

Draw or Away (X2)41.9%

Exactly 1 Goal34.0%

Draw32.3%

Both Halves Over 0.526.3%

Goal in Both Halves26.3%

Draw No Bet - Away14.2%

Away Win9.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.6%

Under 4.5 Goals98.4%

Under 3.5 Goals94.0%

Under 2.5 Goals82.1%

Over 0.5 Goals76.5%

1-3 Goals70.6%

1-2 Goals58.7%

Under 1.5 Goals57.5%

Total Goals Even52.8%

Total Goals Odd47.2%

Over 1.5 Goals42.5%

2-4 Goals40.9%

2-3 Goals36.6%

Exactly 2 Goals24.7%

Under 0.5 Goals23.5%

Exactly 0 Goals23.5%

Over 2.5 Goals17.9%

3-4 Goals16.2%

Exactly 3 Goals11.9%

Over 3.5 Goals6.0%

4+ Goals6.0%

Over 4.5 Goals1.6%

Over 5.5 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)82.3%

Home Clean Sheet74.1%

Home Team to Score68.3%

Home Win to Nil50.6%

Away Clean Sheet31.7%

Away Team to Score25.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)17.7%

Away Win to Nil8.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Exactly 074.1%

Home Over 0.568.3%

Home Exactly 136.4%

Home Over 1.531.9%

Home Exactly 031.7%

Away Over 0.525.9%

Away Exactly 122.2%

Home Exactly 220.9%

Home Over 2.511.0%

Home 3+ Goals11.0%

Away Over 1.53.7%

Away Exactly 23.3%

Away Over 2.50.4%

Away 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw31.9%

Home to win by 131.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.8%

Home to win by 3+8.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.3%

Away to win by 18.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.2%

Away to win by 21.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.574.0%

Home & No BTTS50.6%

Home & Under 2.542.5%

Draw & Under 2.531.5%

Home & Over 2.515.6%

BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

Draw & BTTS8.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

Away & No BTTS8.2%

Away & Under 2.58.1%

BTTS & Under 2.58.1%

Home & BTTS7.5%

Away & Over 2.51.5%

Away & BTTS1.4%

Draw & Over 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.586.1%

HT Draw55.8%

HT Under 0.552.1%

HT Over 0.547.9%

Equal Goals Each Half37.3%

HT Home Win36.4%

2nd Half More Goals35.6%

HT/FT Home/Home34.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw27.8%

1st Half More Goals27.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home23.2%

HT Over 1.513.9%

HT Away Win7.8%

HT Both Teams Score5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Beitar Jerusalem win50%

Draw50%

AEK Larnaca win0%

AdviceCombo Double chance : Beitar Jerusalem or draw and -2.5 goals

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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