UEFA Europa League

Benfica vs Aarhus

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

Benfica 80.3% Draw 10.1% Aarhus 9.6%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Benfica: 11 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.6%

Exact-score model probability

Benfica

W D D W W L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 22:6 Scored/game 3.67 Conceded/game 1

Aarhus

L W W L

Form 2-0-2 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.25

📈 Probability Breakdown

Benfica win80.3%

Draw10.1%

Aarhus win9.6%

Over 1.5 goals98.8%

Over 2.5 goals94.8%

Over 3.5 goals86.8%

Both teams to score82.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.9%

Both Halves Over 0.5

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.2%

Goal in Both Halves91.2%

Draw No Bet - Home89.2%

Home or Draw (1X)86.6%

Home or Away (12)86.6%

Home Win77.3%

Draw or Away (X2)18.7%

Draw No Bet - Away10.8%

Away Win9.4%

Draw9.3%

Exactly 1 Goal1.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals91.0%

Over 3.5 Goals83.3%

4+ Goals83.3%

Over 4.5 Goals71.3%

Over 5.5 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals43.9%

Under 4.5 Goals28.7%

2-4 Goals23.3%

3-4 Goals19.7%

Under 3.5 Goals16.7%

1-3 Goals12.5%

2-3 Goals11.3%

Under 2.5 Goals9.0%

Exactly 3 Goals7.7%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

1-2 Goals4.8%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score80.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.8%

Home Clean Sheet15.9%

Home Win to Nil15.7%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Away Over 0.580.1%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.551.5%

Away Exactly 128.6%

Away Over 2.525.8%

Away 3+ Goals25.8%

Away Exactly 225.7%

Away Exactly 015.9%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)77.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away77.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)63.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home63.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)63.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away63.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)48.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)48.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home48.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away48.0%

Home to win by 3+48.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)32.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home32.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)32.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away32.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home18.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.4%

Home to win by 113.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 15.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.5%

Away to win by 22.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.7%

Home & Over 2.574.6%

Home & BTTS61.6%

Home & No BTTS15.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.3%

Draw & BTTS9.1%

Away & Over 2.58.7%

Away & BTTS8.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Home & Under 2.52.7%

Draw & Under 2.51.7%

BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.1%

HT Over 1.577.5%

HT Home Win65.7%

HT/FT Home/Home61.3%

2nd Half More Goals51.7%

HT Both Teams Score48.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.522.5%

HT Draw20.3%

Equal Goals Each Half15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT Away Win14.0%

HT Under 0.55.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.7%

HT/FT Away/Away5.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners87.9%

Under 10.5 Corners80.3%

Home Most Corners80.0%

Under 9.5 Corners70.1%

Home Over 4.5 Corners64.2%

Under 8.5 Corners57.5%

Over 8.5 Corners42.5%

Over 9.5 Corners29.9%

Over 10.5 Corners19.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners12.6%

Over 11.5 Corners12.1%

Away Most Corners11.3%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards84.0%

Under 5.5 Cards68.1%

Over 3.5 Cards67.8%

Under 4.5 Cards50.9%

Over 4.5 Cards49.1%

Under 3.5 Cards32.2%

Over 5.5 Cards31.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.5%

Under 2.5 Cards16.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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