UEFA Europa League

Benfica vs Celtic

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Benfica 78.1% Draw 11.0% Celtic 10.9%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Benfica: 15 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.6%

Exact-score model probability

Benfica

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 15:5 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Celtic

L W W L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Benfica win78.1%

Draw11.0%

Celtic win10.9%

Over 1.5 goals98.7%

Over 2.5 goals94.5%

Over 3.5 goals86.2%

Both teams to score83.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.8%

Over 2.5 Goals

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.8%

Goal in Both Halves90.8%

Draw No Bet - Home87.5%

Home or Away (12)86.4%

Home or Draw (1X)85.8%

Home Win75.6%

Draw or Away (X2)21.0%

Draw No Bet - Away12.5%

Away Win10.8%

Draw10.2%

Exactly 1 Goal1.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.4%

Over 1.5 Goals95.2%

Over 2.5 Goals91.3%

Over 3.5 Goals83.3%

4+ Goals83.3%

Over 4.5 Goals70.9%

Over 5.5 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Odd48.3%

Total Goals Even48.3%

Under 5.5 Goals44.6%

Under 4.5 Goals29.1%

2-4 Goals24.3%

3-4 Goals20.4%

Under 3.5 Goals16.7%

1-3 Goals13.1%

2-3 Goals11.9%

Under 2.5 Goals8.7%

Exactly 3 Goals8.0%

1-2 Goals5.1%

Under 1.5 Goals4.8%

Exactly 2 Goals3.9%

Under 0.5 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.3%

Away Team to Score81.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.5%

Home Clean Sheet15.0%

Home Win to Nil14.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.3%

Away Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.3%

Home Over 1.589.7%

Away Over 0.581.6%

Home Over 2.577.5%

Home 3+ Goals77.5%

Away Over 1.553.6%

Away Exactly 128.0%

Away Over 2.527.6%

Away 3+ Goals27.6%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Exactly 015.0%

Home Exactly 212.2%

Home Exactly 15.6%

Home Exactly 01.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away79.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)66.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away66.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)45.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home45.3%

Home to win by 3+45.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home17.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.1%

Home to win by 114.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.0%

Away to win by 16.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.0%

Away to win by 23.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.9%

Home & Over 2.572.9%

Home & BTTS60.8%

Home & No BTTS14.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.4%

Away & Over 2.510.1%

Draw & BTTS10.0%

Away & BTTS9.7%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Home & Under 2.52.8%

Draw & Under 2.51.8%

BTTS & Under 2.51.6%

Away & No BTTS1.1%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.9%

HT Over 1.576.8%

HT Home Win63.6%

HT/FT Home/Home58.8%

2nd Half More Goals51.6%

HT Both Teams Score48.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.523.2%

HT Draw21.1%

Equal Goals Each Half15.9%

HT Away Win15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT/FT Away/Away6.2%

HT Under 0.56.1%

HT/FT Away/Home5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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