Portugal · Primeira Liga

Benfica vs Estoril

Kick-off 20:15 · Mon, Aug 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

85% confidence

Benfica 84.6% Draw 9.2% Estoril 5.5%

Over 2.5 - 77% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Benfica: 14 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Benfica

W W W D D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 22:6 Scored/game 3.67 Conceded/game 1

Estoril

L L D L D D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 4:10 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Benfica 5wins ·0 draws ·Estoril 0wins

Benfica 3-1 EstorilMay 16, 2026

Benfica 3-1 EstorilJan 3, 2026

Benfica 2-1 EstorilMay 3, 2025

Benfica 3-0 EstorilDec 23, 2024

Benfica 3-1 EstorilMar 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Benfica win84.6%

Draw9.2%

Estoril win5.5%

Over 1.5 goals90.6%

Over 2.5 goals76.9%

Over 3.5 goals57.9%

Both teams to score58.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Home Over 1.5

87.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.7%

Home or Draw (1X)94.5%

Home or Away (12)91.0%

Home Win87.1%

Both Halves Over 0.580.5%

Goal in Both Halves80.5%

Draw or Away (X2)11.3%

Draw7.4%

Exactly 1 Goal4.6%

Draw No Bet - Away4.3%

Away Win3.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.8%

Over 2.5 Goals82.2%

Under 5.5 Goals70.0%

Over 3.5 Goals66.0%

4+ Goals66.0%

Under 4.5 Goals52.8%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

Over 4.5 Goals47.2%

2-4 Goals45.6%

3-4 Goals35.0%

Under 3.5 Goals34.0%

1-3 Goals31.4%

Over 5.5 Goals30.0%

2-3 Goals26.8%

Under 2.5 Goals17.8%

Exactly 3 Goals16.3%

1-2 Goals15.2%

Exactly 2 Goals10.6%

Under 1.5 Goals7.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score54.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)46.7%

Home Clean Sheet43.9%

Home Win to Nil42.9%

Away Clean Sheet2.2%

Away Win to Nil1.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.7%

Home Over 2.571.5%

Home 3+ Goals71.5%

Away Over 0.554.5%

Away Exactly 043.9%

Away Exactly 135.4%

Away Over 1.519.1%

Home Exactly 216.2%

Away Exactly 214.3%

Home Exactly 18.5%

Away Over 2.54.8%

Away 3+ Goals4.8%

Home Exactly 02.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away77.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home73.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)61.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away61.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)55.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home55.6%

Home to win by 3+55.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)42.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away42.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)36.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home36.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)24.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away24.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)21.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home21.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 218.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.5%

Home to win by 113.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away11.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home10.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.9%

Away to win by 12.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.8%

Away to win by 20.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.576.1%

BTTS & Over 2.550.2%

Home & BTTS44.3%

Home & No BTTS42.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.532.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.1%

Home & Under 2.511.0%

Draw & BTTS6.4%

Draw & Under 2.54.1%

Draw & Over 2.53.3%

BTTS & Under 2.53.1%

Away & Over 2.52.8%

Away & BTTS2.7%

Away & No BTTS1.2%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.4%

HT Home Win71.0%

HT/FT Home/Home68.8%

HT Over 1.561.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT Under 1.538.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score25.0%

HT Draw21.7%

Equal Goals Each Half18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.5%

HT Under 0.512.6%

HT Away Win7.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Away/Away2.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions