UEFA Europa League

Benfica vs FC ST. Gallen

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Jul 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Benfica 60.4% Draw 18.1% FC ST. Gallen 21.5%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Benfica

L W D D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 14:9 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.5

FC ST. Gallen

Form 1-0-0 Goals 2:1 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Benfica 0wins ·0 draws ·FC ST. Gallen 1wins

Benfica 1-2 FC ST. GallenJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Benfica win60.4%

Draw18.1%

FC ST. Gallen win21.5%

Over 1.5 goals95.4%

Over 2.5 goals84.6%

Over 3.5 goals68.8%

Both teams to score79.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.2%

HT Over 0.5

87.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.9%

Both Halves Over 0.581.2%

Goal in Both Halves81.2%

Home or Draw (1X)77.6%

Draw No Bet - Home73.4%

Home Win60.8%

Draw or Away (X2)38.9%

Draw No Bet - Away26.6%

Away Win22.1%

Draw16.8%

Exactly 1 Goal4.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.4%

Over 2.5 Goals84.3%

Over 3.5 Goals68.5%

4+ Goals68.5%

Under 5.5 Goals67.4%

Over 4.5 Goals50.0%

Under 4.5 Goals50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

2-4 Goals44.4%

3-4 Goals34.3%

Over 5.5 Goals32.6%

Under 3.5 Goals31.5%

1-3 Goals30.2%

2-3 Goals25.9%

Exactly 3 Goals15.8%

Under 2.5 Goals15.7%

1-2 Goals14.4%

Exactly 2 Goals10.1%

Under 1.5 Goals5.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.2%

Away Team to Score82.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.7%

Home Clean Sheet16.8%

Home Win to Nil15.9%

Away Clean Sheet5.5%

Away Win to Nil4.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.2%

Away Over 0.582.9%

Home Over 1.578.4%

Home Over 2.555.3%

Home 3+ Goals55.3%

Away Over 1.552.9%

Away Exactly 129.9%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Over 2.526.3%

Away 3+ Goals26.3%

Home Exactly 223.1%

Away Exactly 016.8%

Home Exactly 115.9%

Home Exactly 05.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.0%

Home to win by 3+25.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)22.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 119.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.8%

Home to win by 216.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 111.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.3%

Away to win by 26.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.2%

Away to win by 3+4.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.6%

Home & Over 2.554.2%

Home & BTTS44.9%

Away & Over 2.519.0%

Away & BTTS17.5%

Home & No BTTS15.9%

Draw & BTTS15.9%

Draw & Over 2.511.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.6%

Home & Under 2.56.6%

Draw & Under 2.55.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.8%

Away & No BTTS4.5%

Away & Under 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.9%

HT Over 1.562.3%

2nd Half More Goals49.0%

HT Home Win48.6%

HT/FT Home/Home41.3%

HT Both Teams Score40.2%

HT Under 1.537.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.6%

HT Away Win22.9%

Equal Goals Each Half18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.8%

HT/FT Away/Away13.0%

HT Under 0.512.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.6%

HT/FT Away/Home5.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Benfica win0%

Draw50%

FC ST. Gallen win50%

AdviceDouble chance : draw or FC ST. Gallen

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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