Portugal · Primeira Liga

Benfica vs GIL Vicente

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Benfica 75.9% Draw 15.3% GIL Vicente 8.7%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

79%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 10.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Benfica: 18 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.4%

Exact-score model probability

Benfica

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 22:3 Scored/game 3.67 Conceded/game 0.5

GIL Vicente

L D W W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 4:7 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Benfica 5wins ·0 draws ·GIL Vicente 0wins

Benfica 2-1 GIL VicenteMar 2, 2026

Benfica 2-1 GIL VicenteSep 26, 2025

Benfica 3-0 GIL VicenteMar 28, 2025

Benfica 5-1 GIL VicenteSep 28, 2024

Benfica 3-0 GIL VicenteFeb 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Benfica win75.9%

Draw15.3%

GIL Vicente win8.7%

Over 1.5 goals79.1%

Over 2.5 goals56.9%

Over 3.5 goals34.5%

Both teams to score40.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Win

90.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

Home Over 1.5

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.5%

Home or Draw (1X)95.6%

Home or Away (12)92.3%

Home Win90.0%

Both Halves Over 0.580.5%

Goal in Both Halves80.5%

Draw or Away (X2)7.9%

Draw5.6%

Exactly 1 Goal4.6%

Draw No Bet - Away2.5%

Away Win2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals92.3%

Over 2.5 Goals81.7%

Under 5.5 Goals70.5%

Over 3.5 Goals65.5%

4+ Goals65.5%

Under 4.5 Goals53.3%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Total Goals Odd48.8%

Over 4.5 Goals46.7%

2-4 Goals45.6%

3-4 Goals35.0%

Under 3.5 Goals34.5%

1-3 Goals31.5%

Over 5.5 Goals29.5%

2-3 Goals26.9%

Under 2.5 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals16.3%

1-2 Goals15.2%

Exactly 2 Goals10.6%

Under 1.5 Goals7.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.0%

Home Clean Sheet52.1%

Home Win to Nil51.1%

Away Team to Score45.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)45.0%

Away Clean Sheet1.9%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.6%

Home Over 2.573.8%

Home 3+ Goals73.8%

Away Exactly 052.1%

Away Over 0.545.9%

Away Exactly 132.9%

Home Exactly 214.8%

Away Over 1.513.0%

Away Exactly 210.4%

Home Exactly 17.5%

Away Over 2.52.6%

Away 3+ Goals2.6%

Home Exactly 01.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)90.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)84.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home78.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away72.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)61.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home61.5%

Home to win by 3+61.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)55.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away55.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)42.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home42.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)36.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away36.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)25.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home25.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)19.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away19.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)13.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home13.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.5%

Home to win by 111.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away7.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.8%

Away to win by 11.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 20.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.578.1%

Home & No BTTS51.1%

BTTS & Over 2.542.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.539.3%

Home & BTTS38.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.7%

Home & Under 2.511.9%

Draw & BTTS4.6%

Draw & Under 2.53.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Over 2.52.1%

Away & Over 2.51.5%

Away & BTTS1.5%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.4%

HT Home Win74.9%

HT/FT Home/Home73.4%

HT Over 1.561.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT Under 1.538.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score20.6%

HT Draw19.8%

Equal Goals Each Half18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.9%

HT Under 0.512.6%

HT Away Win5.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.3%

HT/FT Away/Away1.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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