UEFA Europa League

Benfica vs Heart Of Midlothian

Full time · 6:1

📊 Our Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

91% confidence

Benfica 88.0% Draw 8.0% Heart Of Midlothian 4.0%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 64%

✓ Pick was correct (6:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

High scoring

⚠️ AIs disagree

68%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Form gap

85%

Both Teams Score (GG)

Attacking threat

75%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Benfica's strong home form and high scoring rate make them favorites. Heart of Midlothian's recent losses and Benfica's pi-rating advantage indicate a home win. With both teams scoring in 70% of their matches, BTTS is possible. 5 Goals is the strongest pick due to Benfica's high scoring home games.

💡

Top Tip

Over 2

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 90.5% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

High scoring

Recent form leans to Benfica: 11 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals probability

90.5%

Chance of 3+ total goals

Benfica high-scoring games

100%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Heart Of Midlothian high-scoring games

66.7%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Benfica

W L W D D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 17:8 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Heart Of Midlothian

L L L L W D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Benfica win88.0%

Draw8.0%

Heart Of Midlothian win4.0%

Over 1.5 goals97.5%

Over 2.5 goals90.5%

Over 3.5 goals79.2%

Both teams to score64.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.6%

Home or Away (12)

90.2%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.2%

Home or Draw (1X)92.5%

Home or Away (12)90.2%

Both Halves Over 0.587.3%

Goal in Both Halves87.3%

Home Win86.7%

Draw or Away (X2)9.2%

Draw5.8%

Draw No Bet - Away3.8%

Away Win3.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.4%

Over 2.5 Goals87.3%

Over 3.5 Goals76.0%

4+ Goals76.0%

Over 4.5 Goals60.5%

Under 5.5 Goals56.6%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals43.4%

Under 4.5 Goals39.5%

2-4 Goals32.8%

3-4 Goals26.7%

Under 3.5 Goals24.0%

1-3 Goals19.5%

2-3 Goals17.3%

Under 2.5 Goals12.7%

Exactly 3 Goals11.2%

1-2 Goals8.3%

Under 1.5 Goals6.6%

Exactly 2 Goals6.1%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score61.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.3%

Home Clean Sheet34.6%

Home Win to Nil34.2%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.561.4%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Exactly 034.6%

Away Over 1.526.1%

Away Exactly 218.0%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.58.1%

Away 3+ Goals8.1%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)86.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)81.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)76.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home76.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)68.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away68.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home60.9%

Home to win by 3+60.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)52.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away52.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)43.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home43.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)35.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away35.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)27.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home27.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)19.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away19.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home14.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.6%

Home to win by 110.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away9.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.4%

Away to win by 12.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.8%

Away to win by 20.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.3%

Away to win by 3+0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.580.9%

BTTS & Over 2.558.8%

Home & BTTS52.5%

Home & No BTTS34.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.528.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.9%

Home & Under 2.55.9%

Draw & BTTS5.4%

Draw & Over 2.53.6%

Away & Over 2.52.8%

Away & BTTS2.7%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.7%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.6%

HT Home Win74.6%

HT/FT Home/Home72.5%

HT Over 1.570.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score31.9%

HT Under 1.529.1%

HT Draw18.1%

Equal Goals Each Half17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT Under 0.58.4%

HT Away Win7.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Away/Away1.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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