UEFA Europa League

Benfica vs Lech Poznan

Kick-off 21:00 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Benfica 45.3% Draw 19.5% Lech Poznan 35.2%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Benfica: 15 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.6%

Exact-score model probability

Benfica

W W W L W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 13:5 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Lech Poznan

D W W W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 19:6 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Benfica win45.3%

Draw19.5%

Lech Poznan win35.2%

Over 1.5 goals96.4%

Over 2.5 goals87.1%

Over 3.5 goals72.8%

Both teams to score84.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

90.1%

Away Over 0.5

90.1%

Under 11.5 Corners

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.4%

Goal in Both Halves83.4%

Home or Away (12)81.5%

Home or Draw (1X)64.0%

Draw No Bet - Home56.1%

Draw or Away (X2)54.0%

Home Win45.7%

Draw No Bet - Away43.9%

Away Win35.7%

Draw18.3%

Exactly 1 Goal3.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals95.6%

Over 2.5 Goals86.9%

Over 3.5 Goals72.6%

4+ Goals72.6%

Under 5.5 Goals62.6%

Over 4.5 Goals54.9%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals45.1%

2-4 Goals40.6%

Over 5.5 Goals37.4%

3-4 Goals32.0%

Under 3.5 Goals27.4%

1-3 Goals26.4%

2-3 Goals22.9%

Exactly 3 Goals14.3%

Under 2.5 Goals13.1%

1-2 Goals12.1%

Exactly 2 Goals8.7%

Under 1.5 Goals4.4%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.5%

Away Team to Score90.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.5%

Home Clean Sheet9.7%

Home Win to Nil9.0%

Away Clean Sheet7.3%

Away Win to Nil6.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.5%

Away Over 0.590.1%

Home Over 1.573.5%

Away Over 1.567.5%

Home Over 2.548.5%

Home 3+ Goals48.5%

Away Over 2.541.1%

Away 3+ Goals41.1%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 225.0%

Away Exactly 122.6%

Home Exactly 119.0%

Away Exactly 09.7%

Home Exactly 07.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away84.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)28.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home28.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 117.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.4%

Away to win by 115.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.3%

Home to win by 3+15.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.2%

Home to win by 213.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.4%

Away to win by 210.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.9%

Away to win by 3+9.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.2%

Home & Over 2.541.5%

Home & BTTS36.7%

Away & Over 2.532.2%

Away & BTTS29.2%

Draw & BTTS17.6%

Draw & Over 2.513.3%

Home & No BTTS9.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.7%

Away & No BTTS6.6%

Draw & Under 2.55.0%

Home & Under 2.54.3%

BTTS & Under 2.54.3%

Away & Under 2.53.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.2%

HT Over 1.565.3%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Both Teams Score45.0%

HT Home Win38.8%

HT Under 1.534.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win32.3%

HT/FT Home/Home29.5%

HT Draw28.8%

HT/FT Away/Away22.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.8%

HT Under 0.510.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners90.0%

Under 10.5 Corners83.2%

Under 9.5 Corners73.7%

Under 8.5 Corners61.6%

Away Most Corners45.1%

Home Most Corners40.4%

Over 8.5 Corners38.4%

Away Over 4.5 Corners37.1%

Home Over 4.5 Corners33.9%

Over 9.5 Corners26.3%

Over 10.5 Corners16.8%

Over 11.5 Corners10.0%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards87.5%

Over 3.5 Cards73.5%

Under 5.5 Cards61.6%

Over 4.5 Cards56.0%

Under 4.5 Cards44.0%

Over 5.5 Cards38.4%

Under 3.5 Cards26.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards20.0%

Under 2.5 Cards12.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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