Portugal · Primeira Liga

Benfica vs Vitória SC

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Benfica 72.2% Draw 17.9% Vitória SC 9.8%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

76%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 9.8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Benfica: 15 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.8%

Exact-score model probability

Benfica

L W W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 16:6 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1

Vitória SC

D L D L W L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:7 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 2

Benfica 2wins ·0 draws ·Vitória SC 0wins

Benfica 3-0 Vitória SCApr 19, 2025

Benfica 1-0 Vitória SCDec 7, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Benfica win72.2%

Draw17.9%

Vitória SC win9.8%

Over 1.5 goals76.3%

Over 2.5 goals52.4%

Over 3.5 goals30.2%

Both teams to score69.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

90.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

Home Win

86.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.4%

Home or Draw (1X)94.6%

Home or Away (12)90.8%

Home Win86.6%

Both Halves Over 0.578.5%

Goal in Both Halves78.5%

Draw or Away (X2)12.2%

Draw8.0%

Exactly 1 Goal5.4%

Draw No Bet - Away4.6%

Away Win4.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals92.1%

Over 2.5 Goals80.3%

Under 5.5 Goals73.2%

Over 3.5 Goals62.8%

4+ Goals62.8%

Under 4.5 Goals56.4%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-4 Goals48.5%

Over 4.5 Goals43.6%

Under 3.5 Goals37.2%

3-4 Goals36.6%

1-3 Goals34.7%

2-3 Goals29.3%

Over 5.5 Goals26.8%

Under 2.5 Goals19.7%

Exactly 3 Goals17.4%

1-2 Goals17.3%

Exactly 2 Goals11.9%

Under 1.5 Goals7.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score53.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.2%

Home Clean Sheet45.6%

Home Win to Nil44.3%

Away Clean Sheet2.7%

Away Win to Nil1.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.5%

Home Over 2.568.9%

Home 3+ Goals68.9%

Away Over 0.553.2%

Away Exactly 045.6%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Over 1.518.0%

Home Exactly 217.5%

Away Exactly 213.6%

Home Exactly 19.7%

Away Over 2.54.3%

Away 3+ Goals4.3%

Home Exactly 02.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)86.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)79.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away79.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home72.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)64.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away64.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)53.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home53.4%

Home to win by 3+53.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)45.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away45.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)34.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home34.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)26.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away26.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home19.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 218.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 114.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away12.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 13.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.9%

Away to win by 20.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.574.1%

BTTS & Over 2.548.3%

Home & No BTTS44.3%

Home & BTTS42.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.531.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.1%

Home & Under 2.512.5%

Draw & BTTS6.8%

Draw & Under 2.54.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Draw & Over 2.53.3%

Away & Over 2.52.8%

Away & BTTS2.7%

Away & No BTTS1.4%

Away & Under 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.2%

HT Home Win69.7%

HT/FT Home/Home67.4%

HT Over 1.558.8%

2nd Half More Goals48.4%

HT Under 1.541.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score23.7%

HT Draw22.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.1%

HT Under 0.513.8%

HT Away Win7.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Away/Away2.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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