Turkey · Süper Lig

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor

Kick-off 17:00 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

88% confidence

Beşiktaş 88.2% Draw 10.0% Kocaelispor 1.8%

Over 2.5 - 60% BTTS - 25%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

88%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 17.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Beşiktaş: 15 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.60 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +2.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.5%

Exact-score model probability

Beşiktaş

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 12:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.5

Kocaelispor

W L L L D

Form 1-1-3 Goals 3:5 Scored/game 0.6 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Beşiktaş win88.2%

Draw10.0%

Kocaelispor win1.8%

Over 1.5 goals82.3%

Over 2.5 goals60.3%

Over 3.5 goals37.8%

Both teams to score24.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

90.7%

Under 5.5 Goals

90.6%

Home Win

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)97.5%

Draw No Bet - Home97.5%

Home or Away (12)90.7%

Home Win88.5%

Both Halves Over 0.561.9%

Goal in Both Halves61.9%

Exactly 1 Goal13.8%

Draw or Away (X2)11.3%

Draw9.0%

Draw No Bet - Away2.5%

Away Win2.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.3%

Under 5.5 Goals90.6%

Over 1.5 Goals81.6%

Under 4.5 Goals79.7%

Under 3.5 Goals62.2%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Over 2.5 Goals60.1%

1-3 Goals57.6%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals43.8%

Under 2.5 Goals39.9%

3-4 Goals39.8%

Over 3.5 Goals37.8%

4+ Goals37.8%

1-2 Goals35.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.5%

Over 4.5 Goals20.3%

Under 1.5 Goals18.4%

Over 5.5 Goals9.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 0 Goals4.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)75.6%

Home Clean Sheet73.8%

Home Win to Nil69.4%

Away Team to Score25.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)24.4%

Away Clean Sheet6.0%

Away Win to Nil1.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.8%

Home Over 1.577.0%

Away Exactly 073.8%

Home Over 2.553.3%

Home 3+ Goals53.3%

Away Over 0.525.9%

Home Exactly 223.7%

Away Exactly 122.2%

Home Exactly 116.8%

Home Exactly 06.0%

Away Over 1.53.7%

Away Exactly 23.3%

Away Over 2.50.4%

Away 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home99.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home97.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)88.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away73.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)69.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home69.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)52.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away52.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)46.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home46.9%

Home to win by 3+46.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)29.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away29.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)26.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home26.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw23.1%

Home to win by 223.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw20.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 118.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)12.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home12.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away11.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 12.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.3%

Away to win by 20.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Away to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS69.4%

Home & Over 2.558.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.539.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.9%

Home & Under 2.530.0%

BTTS & Over 2.520.6%

Home & BTTS19.0%

Draw & Under 2.58.1%

Draw & BTTS4.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Away & No BTTS1.5%

Draw & Over 2.50.9%

Away & Over 2.50.7%

Away & BTTS0.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.5%

HT Home Win67.2%

HT/FT Home/Home65.9%

HT Under 1.559.0%

2nd Half More Goals45.0%

HT Over 1.541.0%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Draw28.9%

HT Under 0.524.5%

Equal Goals Each Half23.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home21.3%

HT Both Teams Score9.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.6%

HT Away Win3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.1%

HT/FT Away/Away1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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