UEFA Europa League

Beşiktaş vs Marseille

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Sep 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91% confidence

Beşiktaş 91.0% Draw 7.2% Marseille 1.8%

Over 2.5 - 76% BTTS - 37%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

91%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 13.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Beşiktaş: 15 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +2.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.4%

Exact-score model probability

Beşiktaş

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 12:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.5

Marseille

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Beşiktaş win91.0%

Draw7.2%

Marseille win1.8%

Over 1.5 goals91.3%

Over 2.5 goals76.3%

Over 3.5 goals56.6%

Both teams to score36.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Win

90.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

Over 1.5 Goals

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.7%

Home or Draw (1X)96.8%

Home or Away (12)92.6%

Home Win90.4%

Both Halves Over 0.574.5%

Goal in Both Halves74.5%

Draw or Away (X2)8.5%

Exactly 1 Goal7.2%

Draw6.3%

Draw No Bet - Away2.3%

Away Win2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.1%

Over 1.5 Goals89.9%

Under 5.5 Goals79.2%

Over 2.5 Goals75.4%

Under 4.5 Goals63.5%

Over 3.5 Goals56.0%

4+ Goals56.0%

2-4 Goals53.4%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Under 3.5 Goals44.0%

1-3 Goals41.1%

3-4 Goals39.0%

Over 4.5 Goals36.5%

2-3 Goals33.9%

Under 2.5 Goals24.6%

1-2 Goals21.7%

Over 5.5 Goals20.8%

Exactly 3 Goals19.4%

Exactly 2 Goals14.5%

Under 1.5 Goals10.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)63.9%

Home Clean Sheet61.7%

Home Win to Nil59.9%

Away Team to Score37.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)36.1%

Away Clean Sheet2.9%

Away Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.585.9%

Home Over 2.567.8%

Home 3+ Goals67.8%

Away Exactly 061.7%

Away Over 0.537.2%

Away Exactly 129.1%

Home Exactly 218.1%

Home Exactly 110.2%

Away Over 1.58.1%

Away Exactly 26.9%

Home Exactly 02.9%

Away Over 2.51.2%

Away 3+ Goals1.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home96.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)90.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)77.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away77.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)77.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home77.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away60.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)58.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home58.0%

Home to win by 3+58.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)40.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away40.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)38.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home38.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away21.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)21.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home21.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw20.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 219.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.4%

Home to win by 113.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home10.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away8.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.8%

Away to win by 11.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.3%

Away to win by 20.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.8%

Home & No BTTS59.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.542.3%

BTTS & Over 2.533.1%

Home & BTTS30.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.5%

Home & Under 2.517.6%

Draw & Under 2.54.8%

Draw & BTTS4.5%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Draw & Over 2.51.5%

Away & Over 2.51.1%

Away & BTTS1.1%

Away & No BTTS1.1%

Away & Under 2.51.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.6%

HT Home Win73.1%

HT/FT Home/Home71.7%

HT Over 1.554.0%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.0%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw22.4%

Equal Goals Each Half20.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.6%

HT Under 0.516.4%

HT Both Teams Score15.3%

HT Away Win4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Away/Away1.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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