England · Championship

Birmingham vs Bristol City

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Birmingham 42.8% Draw 44.8% Bristol City 12.4%

Over 2.5 - 9% BTTS - 15%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-0 at 34.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Birmingham: 5 points versus 3 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

34.4%

Exact-score model probability

Birmingham

D W D

Form 1-2-0 Goals 2:1 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 0.33

Bristol City

L L W

Form 1-0-2 Goals 2:3 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Birmingham win42.8%

Draw44.8%

Bristol City win12.4%

Over 1.5 goals29.9%

Over 2.5 goals9.3%

Over 3.5 goals2.3%

Both teams to score14.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Under 1.5

91.6%

Under 2.5 Goals

90.7%

Home or Draw (1X)

86.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)86.6%

Draw No Bet - Home76.6%

Home or Away (12)57.2%

Draw or Away (X2)56.2%

Home Win43.8%

Draw42.8%

Exactly 1 Goal36.7%

Draw No Bet - Away23.4%

Both Halves Over 0.516.9%

Goal in Both Halves16.9%

Away Win13.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.9%

Under 4.5 Goals99.5%

Under 3.5 Goals97.7%

Under 2.5 Goals90.7%

Under 1.5 Goals71.1%

Over 0.5 Goals65.6%

1-3 Goals63.3%

1-2 Goals56.3%

Total Goals Even55.9%

Total Goals Odd44.1%

Under 0.5 Goals34.4%

Exactly 0 Goals34.4%

Over 1.5 Goals28.9%

2-4 Goals28.4%

2-3 Goals26.5%

Exactly 2 Goals19.6%

Over 2.5 Goals9.3%

3-4 Goals8.8%

Exactly 3 Goals7.0%

Over 3.5 Goals2.3%

4+ Goals2.3%

Over 4.5 Goals0.5%

Over 5.5 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)86.1%

Home Clean Sheet74.1%

Home Team to Score53.6%

Away Clean Sheet46.4%

Home Win to Nil39.7%

Away Team to Score25.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)13.9%

Away Win to Nil12.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Exactly 074.1%

Home Over 0.553.6%

Home Exactly 046.4%

Home Exactly 135.6%

Away Over 0.525.9%

Away Exactly 122.2%

Home Over 1.517.9%

Home Exactly 213.7%

Home Over 2.54.3%

Home 3+ Goals4.3%

Away Over 1.53.7%

Away Exactly 23.3%

Away Over 2.50.4%

Away 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw29.5%

Home to win by 129.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 111.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.9%

Home to win by 210.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.3%

Home to win by 3+3.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.7%

Away to win by 21.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.582.8%

Draw & Under 2.542.3%

Home & No BTTS39.7%

Home & Under 2.536.5%

Away & No BTTS12.0%

Away & Under 2.511.9%

Draw & BTTS8.4%

BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Home & Over 2.57.3%

BTTS & Over 2.56.0%

Home & BTTS4.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.53.3%

Away & Over 2.51.5%

Away & BTTS1.4%

Draw & Over 2.50.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.591.6%

HT Draw64.8%

HT Under 0.561.9%

Equal Goals Each Half44.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw38.6%

HT Over 0.538.1%

2nd Half More Goals31.1%

HT Home Win26.1%

1st Half More Goals24.1%

HT/FT Home/Home23.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.5%

HT Away Win9.1%

HT Over 1.58.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.7%

HT/FT Away/Away6.5%

HT Both Teams Score3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Away/Home0.5%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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