England · Championship

Birmingham vs Middlesbrough

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Birmingham 26.2% Draw 17.7% Middlesbrough 56.1%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Middlesbrough: 6 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Birmingham

D L D D W L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

Middlesbrough

D W L W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Birmingham win26.2%

Draw17.7%

Middlesbrough win56.1%

Over 1.5 goals97.1%

Over 2.5 goals89.2%

Over 3.5 goals76.3%

Both teams to score84.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.4%

Over 2.5 Goals

88.8%

Home Team to Score

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.3%

Goal in Both Halves85.3%

Home or Away (12)82.8%

Draw or Away (X2)73.0%

Draw No Bet - Away67.9%

Away Win56.3%

Home or Draw (1X)43.3%

Draw No Bet - Home32.1%

Home Win26.5%

Draw16.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals96.2%

Over 2.5 Goals88.8%

Over 3.5 Goals75.9%

4+ Goals75.9%

Over 4.5 Goals59.2%

Under 5.5 Goals58.3%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals41.7%

Under 4.5 Goals40.8%

2-4 Goals37.0%

3-4 Goals29.6%

Under 3.5 Goals24.1%

1-3 Goals23.0%

2-3 Goals20.2%

Exactly 3 Goals12.8%

Under 2.5 Goals11.2%

1-2 Goals10.2%

Exactly 2 Goals7.4%

Under 1.5 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.8%

Home Team to Score88.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.1%

Away Clean Sheet11.5%

Away Win to Nil11.0%

Home Clean Sheet4.7%

Home Win to Nil4.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 0.588.0%

Away Over 1.580.5%

Home Over 1.563.2%

Away Over 2.558.6%

Away 3+ Goals58.6%

Home Over 2.536.4%

Home 3+ Goals36.4%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 124.8%

Away Exactly 221.9%

Away Exactly 114.3%

Home Exactly 011.5%

Away Exactly 04.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home87.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)76.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home76.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)73.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away73.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home61.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)56.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)43.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home43.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)38.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away38.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away23.0%

Away to win by 3+23.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.9%

Away to win by 117.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.4%

Away to win by 215.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 112.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.7%

Home to win by 27.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.3%

Home to win by 3+6.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.580.3%

Away & Over 2.552.1%

Away & BTTS45.3%

Home & Over 2.524.1%

Home & BTTS22.4%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Draw & Over 2.512.6%

Away & No BTTS11.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.2%

Away & Under 2.54.2%

Draw & Under 2.54.1%

Home & No BTTS4.1%

BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Home & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.4%

HT Over 1.568.0%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

HT Both Teams Score46.4%

HT Away Win46.2%

HT/FT Away/Away38.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.532.0%

HT Draw27.3%

HT Home Win26.5%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT/FT Home/Home16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.4%

HT Under 0.59.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.6%

HT/FT Home/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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