England · Championship

Birmingham vs Millwall

Kick-off 21:00 · Tue, Nov 3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

82% confidence

Birmingham 81.9% Draw 10.4% Millwall 7.7%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 73%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

90%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Birmingham: 13 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

Birmingham

W L W W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:4 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Millwall

W L D L W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Birmingham win81.9%

Draw10.4%

Millwall win7.7%

Over 1.5 goals97.3%

Over 2.5 goals90.0%

Over 3.5 goals77.7%

Both teams to score73.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.1%

HT Over 0.5

91.0%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home91.1%

Home or Draw (1X)90.0%

Home or Away (12)88.3%

Both Halves Over 0.586.2%

Goal in Both Halves86.2%

Home Win80.5%

Draw or Away (X2)17.4%

Draw9.5%

Draw No Bet - Away8.9%

Away Win7.9%

Exactly 1 Goal2.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals94.9%

Over 2.5 Goals88.1%

Over 3.5 Goals76.0%

4+ Goals76.0%

Over 4.5 Goals59.8%

Under 5.5 Goals57.5%

Total Goals Even49.0%

Total Goals Odd48.9%

Over 5.5 Goals42.5%

Under 4.5 Goals40.2%

2-4 Goals35.1%

3-4 Goals28.3%

Under 3.5 Goals24.0%

1-3 Goals21.4%

2-3 Goals18.9%

Exactly 3 Goals12.1%

Under 2.5 Goals11.9%

1-2 Goals9.3%

Exactly 2 Goals6.8%

Under 1.5 Goals5.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score72.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.6%

Home Clean Sheet25.1%

Home Win to Nil24.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.8%

Away Win to Nil1.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.588.7%

Home Over 2.574.0%

Home 3+ Goals74.0%

Away Over 0.572.8%

Away Over 1.538.7%

Away Exactly 134.1%

Away Exactly 025.1%

Away Exactly 223.3%

Away Over 2.515.4%

Away 3+ Goals15.4%

Home Exactly 214.7%

Home Exactly 17.4%

Home Exactly 01.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)79.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away79.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away66.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)66.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home66.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)49.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away49.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)48.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home48.6%

Home to win by 3+48.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)31.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away31.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)31.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home31.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home18.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away17.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 114.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 14.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 22.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.574.8%

BTTS & Over 2.568.9%

Home & BTTS55.9%

Home & No BTTS24.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.2%

Draw & BTTS9.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.2%

Away & Over 2.56.8%

Draw & Over 2.56.5%

Away & BTTS6.5%

Home & Under 2.55.7%

Draw & Under 2.53.0%

BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Away & No BTTS1.4%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.0%

HT Over 1.569.4%

HT Home Win66.0%

HT/FT Home/Home62.2%

2nd Half More Goals50.3%

HT Both Teams Score38.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.6%

HT Draw22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT Away Win12.1%

HT Under 0.59.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Away/Away4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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