Italy · Serie A

Bologna vs Lazio

Kick-off 17:30 · Mon, Aug 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Bologna 40.9% Draw 28.0% Lazio 31.1%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lazio: 8 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.9%

Exact-score model probability

Bologna

D W W D L L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Lazio

W L L W D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Bologna 2wins ·1 draws ·Lazio 2wins

Bologna 0-2 LazioMar 22, 2026

Bologna 1-1 LazioDec 7, 2025

Bologna 5-0 LazioMar 16, 2025

Bologna 0-3 LazioNov 24, 2024

Bologna 2-1 LazioFeb 18, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bologna win40.9%

Draw28.0%

Lazio win31.1%

Over 1.5 goals69.3%

Over 2.5 goals54.1%

Over 3.5 goals22.0%

Both teams to score58.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

85.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

85.1%

Under 4.5 Goals

85.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.7%

Draw or Away (X2)66.2%

Home or Draw (1X)59.1%

Both Halves Over 0.556.0%

Goal in Both Halves56.0%

Draw No Bet - Away54.7%

Draw No Bet - Home45.3%

Away Win40.9%

Home Win33.8%

Draw25.3%

Exactly 1 Goal17.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals93.8%

Under 5.5 Goals93.6%

Under 4.5 Goals85.0%

Over 1.5 Goals76.6%

Under 3.5 Goals69.6%

1-3 Goals63.4%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.6%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.4%

2-3 Goals46.2%

1-2 Goals41.2%

3-4 Goals37.7%

Over 3.5 Goals30.4%

4+ Goals30.4%

Exactly 2 Goals24.0%

Under 1.5 Goals23.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals15.0%

Over 5.5 Goals6.4%

Under 0.5 Goals6.2%

Exactly 0 Goals6.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score77.0%

Home Team to Score73.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.7%

Away Clean Sheet26.9%

Home Clean Sheet23.0%

Away Win to Nil20.7%

Home Win to Nil16.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.577.0%

Home Over 0.573.1%

Away Over 1.543.2%

Home Over 1.537.8%

Home Exactly 135.3%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Home Exactly 026.9%

Away Exactly 224.8%

Home Exactly 223.2%

Away Exactly 023.0%

Away Over 2.518.3%

Away 3+ Goals18.3%

Home Over 2.514.6%

Home 3+ Goals14.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)66.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away66.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)33.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.2%

Away to win by 121.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.9%

Home to win by 118.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 212.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.7%

Home to win by 29.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.6%

Away to win by 3+7.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.2%

Home to win by 3+5.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.544.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.4%

Away & Over 2.525.1%

Away & No BTTS20.7%

Home & Over 2.520.4%

Away & BTTS20.2%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Draw & Under 2.518.1%

Home & BTTS17.0%

Home & No BTTS16.8%

Away & Under 2.515.8%

Home & Under 2.513.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

Draw & Over 2.57.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.4%

HT Under 1.564.4%

2nd Half More Goals43.8%

HT Draw40.9%

HT Over 1.535.6%

HT Away Win31.7%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.528.6%

HT Home Win27.4%

Equal Goals Each Half25.1%

HT/FT Away/Away24.4%

HT Both Teams Score21.6%

HT/FT Home/Home19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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