Italy · Serie A

Bologna vs Monza

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Bologna 61.2% Draw 21.0% Monza 17.8%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 92%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.3%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Bologna: 10 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.3%

Exact-score model probability

Bologna

W W L W D L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Monza

L L W L W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 12:14 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.33

Head to head · last 5

Bologna 2wins ·2 draws ·Monza 1wins

Bologna 3-1 MonzaJan 18, 2025

Bologna 2-1 MonzaSep 22, 2024

Bologna 0-0 MonzaApr 13, 2024

Bologna 0-0 MonzaSep 28, 2023

Bologna 0-1 MonzaFeb 12, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bologna win61.2%

Draw21.0%

Monza win17.8%

Over 1.5 goals80.5%

Over 2.5 goals96.1%

Over 3.5 goals35.8%

Both teams to score92.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

89.4%

HT Over 0.5

89.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.5%

Goal in Both Halves83.5%

Home or Away (12)82.2%

Home or Draw (1X)71.4%

Draw No Bet - Home65.6%

Home Win53.9%

Draw or Away (X2)45.8%

Draw No Bet - Away34.4%

Away Win28.3%

Draw17.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.5%

Over 2.5 Goals86.9%

Over 3.5 Goals72.7%

4+ Goals72.7%

Under 5.5 Goals62.5%

Over 4.5 Goals55.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals45.0%

2-4 Goals40.5%

Over 5.5 Goals37.5%

3-4 Goals31.9%

Under 3.5 Goals27.3%

1-3 Goals26.3%

2-3 Goals22.8%

Exactly 3 Goals14.2%

Under 2.5 Goals13.1%

1-2 Goals12.1%

Exactly 2 Goals8.6%

Under 1.5 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.0%

Away Team to Score87.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.5%

Home Clean Sheet12.2%

Home Win to Nil11.5%

Away Clean Sheet5.7%

Away Win to Nil5.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.0%

Away Over 0.587.5%

Home Over 1.577.6%

Away Over 1.562.0%

Home Over 2.554.2%

Home 3+ Goals54.2%

Away Over 2.535.0%

Away 3+ Goals35.0%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 125.6%

Home Exactly 223.4%

Home Exactly 116.4%

Away Exactly 012.2%

Home Exactly 05.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)63.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away63.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.6%

Home to win by 3+20.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 118.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.4%

Away to win by 113.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.2%

Away to win by 28.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.7%

Away to win by 3+6.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.3%

Home & Over 2.549.1%

Home & BTTS42.5%

Away & Over 2.525.2%

Away & BTTS23.2%

Draw & BTTS16.8%

Draw & Over 2.512.6%

Home & No BTTS11.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Away & No BTTS5.0%

Draw & Under 2.54.9%

Home & Under 2.54.8%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Away & Under 2.53.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.3%

HT Over 1.565.4%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Home Win44.3%

HT Both Teams Score44.3%

HT/FT Home/Home35.9%

HT Under 1.534.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.3%

HT Away Win27.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.0%

HT/FT Away/Away17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.3%

HT Under 0.510.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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